The Technical Mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headed by Joshi bikas He concluded his visit to Buenos Aires as part of the first review of the Extended Facilities Agreement, according to the agency’s sources to Scope. They stressed that “conversations with the Argentine authorities continue to be constructive.”
“Within the framework of this review, we will continue working in the next few days and we will provide more information on the next steps in due time”the same sources added.
For this purpose, it is expected that in the next few days a mission of the Argentine government will travel to Washington. Will be headed by the Deputy Minister of Economy, José Luis Dazaas this means can know.
The Government complied with all the goals agreed with the IMF with the exception of the one referring to the accumulation of reserves In the hands of the Central Bank, economists coincide.
Aldo Abramdirector of the Freedom and Progress Foundation in Buenos Aires, estimated that the country could be between US $ 4,500 million YU $ 4,100 million below of the agreed reservation goal, according to the Reuters agency. However, he considered that for this detour “They are not going to do big problems in the background. “
Goals
In the halls of the Casa Rosada they spoke in the same direction. While they recognize that the Argentine government did not reach the expected accumulation of foreign exchange, They emphasize that it has demonstrated their intention to meet the objective and that technicians will take into account the trend observed in this regard.
They also note that other goals are more important, such as the result of the Treasury and the decision to close the monetary issuance. From this point of view, remember that The Government self -imposed a primary fiscal surplus goal of 1.6% of GDP, more demanding than that agreed at the time with the fund.
Dollars
At the beginning of the month, the Minister of Economy, Luis CaputoHe said that the accumulation of reserves was no longer as important as before, with a greater flotation of the weight and a capitalized central bank and highlighted the support of the IMF to the president’s reforms Javier Milei.
However, the latest data related to The evolution of external accounts generates concern among economic analysts. The current exchange account account last May a deficit of U $ S149 million in front of a US $ 1,161 million equal month last year and we reached the 12 consecutive months of imbalance, he maintains Christian Buter.
“May took the U $ S3.2 billion mattress. In a month and a half more than US $ 5,000” The economist commented Martín Polo of the Cohen group.
Answer
Vice Minister Daza refuted these statements. In social networks he published that “a current account deficit of 1-2%, in a country that grows to 6% of GDP, It is absolutely expected and reasonable “. And he explained: “What we are seeing in Argentina is that there is a saving by the treasury and the investment is increasing. A decapitalized country is absolutely reasonable that it has current account deficit. The alternative would be crazy, having current account surplus would be to finance the country to buy the assets. It is a current account deficit explained fundamentally by the investment. “
For its part, the Secretary of Finance, Pablo Quirno via X explained that:
“1) The dollar floats, if someone considers that it is late (or advanced) can make decisions accordingly. Its level is the result of the macroeconomic foundations of the program.
2) The current account deficit is understandable from an increase in imports of capital goods and consisting of the necessary investment for an economy that is growing above 5%.
(In addition to the advancement of imports that occurred as a result of devaluation expectations, which did not occur, product of the imminence of the agreement with the IMF and the overtime advance of imports due to the change of rates announced by the US)
Another totally different topic (and unpublished in our history) is that, having financial fiscal balance, the current account deficit is financed by the private sector.
3) Buying in the gear market is not the only way that has the BCRA/Treasure to buy reservations. It can do it via rest, Bontes, Block Trades, sale of assets (and some of these alternatives have already been used) buying USD4,000 million approx in the last month without affecting the change market, ”concludes its post.
Reservations
Likewise, the members of the economic team explain that there are other ways to accumulate reserves. Thus, the Minister of Economy explained it on social networks: “It is that the Treasury performs Block Trade operations: when a company, which placed debt in dollars has to sell them in the market, if it is a volume high enough to risk excessive volatility in the exchange rate, the treasure can buy those dollars with the pesos product of the fiscal surplus. Thus also accumulate reserves.”
Meanwhile, Federico Furiase, From the economic team he contributed that: “For example, when the treasure in the last tenders placed a bonus in pesos that are subscribed in dollars (Bonte) for not residents. Those dollars the treasure left them in the account of the BCRA until they are used to pay the maturities of debt in foreign currency.
Sorry
“I think they will forgive (Failure to comply with the reservation goal) even if they ask for more later, “he said Claudio Loserformer director of the IMF for the western hemisphere. “Most likely, disbursement is not automatic, but Requires a waiver (forgiveness)“The economist said Daniel Marx.
The fund is expected to provide more details referring to the progress of negotiations and their evaluation on the performance of the Argentine economy on Thursday, July 3, in the framework of the usual press conference provided by the body’s spokeswoman, Julie Kozack.
Source: Ambito
