“According to our May measurement, the inflation expected by the population for the next 12 months is 58.4% according to the average. This is the highest value since the index was created, in 2006, and represents a rise of 6.2 percentage points compared to the April measurement (52.2%), “says the study house’s report.
Although it is the highest mark in recent years, lThe perception that consumers have regarding the evolution that prices are going to have in the coming months is below what the company assumess and consultants although there are differences regarding the regions in the country.
In the Federal Capital and the Interior of the country levels of 62.2% and 59.4% respectively are observed, while in GBA people assume that inflation will be 55.2%. On the other hand, households with higher incomes have an average inflation expectation of 59.9%, while households with lower incomes have 56.5%.
Guzmán, meanwhile, has serious problems in being able to convince businessmen and economic agents that prices are going to tend to fall in the rest of the year, especially because there are tariff increases ahead and an acceleration in the level of devaluation. of the peso to prevent the exchange rate from being delayed.
For example, the consulting firm LCG is already working with inflation projections of 75% per year for 2022. But it makes the caveat that these new levels of “nominality” are not yet incorporated by economic agents. “We believe that it will not take long to be reflected in the general expectation. With which the rate must be corrected before the end of the semester”, clarifies the consultant.
In this regard, the economist from the Center for Economic Studies Orlando Ferreres, Faust Sportorno, He pointed out that the consultant is working with uNo inflation of between 72% and 75% by the end of the year. He estimated that inflation in May will be around 5% “which seems like a relief after the disaster in March and April”, when it was 6.7 and 6% respectively. “What we economists are trying to do now is measure the level of it is going to locate the inflation”, he clarified.
The fact that Guzmán has to correct price distortions in the remainder of the current presidential term, based on the commitments with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), add fuel to the fire. A) Yes, the consulting firm Invecq assures “if one wanted to return to the relative price structure of April 2019, when the last macrismo rate correction was made, an additional 60% increase would be generated over the current general price level.”
Meanwhile, according to the Central Bank’s Market Expectations Survey (REM), at the end of April 2022, market analysts projected that retail inflation for the current year will be 65.1%.
Source: Ambito
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