Along these lines, Tomás Ruiz Palacios, fixed-income strategist at Consultatio, stressed that contracts from 2023 onwards fell 3% or more, while those of 2022 fell less, but if compared to July 29, highs on Rofex, even the shortest contracts are falling quite a bit. “For example, in December contracts, at the end of July the dollar was $195, and yesterday it was $184. Likewise, the implicit ones, which at that time were between 100% and 120%, are now between 87% and 100%”, he stated.
For his part, Juan Ignacio Bob Lehmann, stock operator at Rofex, considered that “the drop in implicit rates in all tranches during yesterday’s session demonstrates confidence in Massa’s speech, and exposes a drop in devaluation expectations, because future dollar prices fell and the BCRA’s sold position was reversed”. And he added: “He made it clear that he would not sharply devalue, and from my point of view, I think they are going to avoid it as much as they can.”
In this way, August begins with a change in trend in the futures market, after the Central Bank had a strong short position during July, which is estimated to exceed US$7.5 billion, due to a large increase in demand for contracts . In this sense, after the assumption of Massa in charge of the Treasury, the expectations of a discreet jump seemed to dissipate, at least temporarily. It happens that, for analysts, the dynamics of the reserves of the Central can turn the trend at any time.
“We see declines motivated by the signs of the new economic leadership that there will be no devaluation jump in the A3500 exchange rate (the official one). Still, I think we can see volatility in the coming days. The BCRA continued to lose reserves and yesterday the accumulated amount for interventions in the MULC fell to zero so far this year. The question is whether it will be able to reverse this trend and sustain the official exchange rate,” Reschini said.
Ruiz Palacios agreed: “Both the drop in Rofex and the linked dollar operating 1% below average, go hand in hand with the announced measures in which devaluation expectations were deflated. Sustainability must be evaluated, and whether the special regimes are perceived as effective or not, given the great loss of reserves of the Central Bank, which, if it continues, could turn the trend around”.
Source: Ambito
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