In addition, during July the increases in cigarettes stood out, in the Alcoholic beverages and tobacco division (6.4%); of water and electricity services in some regions of the country, which had an impact on Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (4.6%); of the share of prepaid medicine in the Health division (6.8%); of telephone and internet connection services, in Communication (5.5%); and of educational services at all levels, in Education (6.1%).
The increase in Food and non-alcoholic beverages (6%) was the one with the highest incidence in all regions. Within the division, the increase in sugar, sweets, chocolate, sweets stood out; oils, fats and lard; fruits; vegetables, tubers and legumes; and milk, milk products and eggs.
At the category level, it led the seasonal monthly increase (11.3%) -explained mainly by the behavior of Fruits and Vegetables, tubers and legumes and the aforementioned increases in tourism services-, followed by the Core CPI (7.3 %) and Regulated (4.9%).
“The most worrying thing is that the monthly variation was strongly influenced by the core component, which measures the background trend: it was 7.3%. For this reason, all items had significant increases in the month”, Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Asesores, told ambito.com.
What will happen in August?
From the consulting firm Ferreres they project 6.3% for August considering that the first week was very bad, “with a variation of more than 3%”, in particular, with a strong impact on transport (which rose 40% in buses and trains ) and prepaid among the regulated, but also with significant increases in clothing and construction materials.
Meanwhile, the consulting firm Eco Go estimates inflation of 6.1% for August. “It is still a fairly preliminary figure, but we expect it to be below July inflation,” they stressed. “Regarding the items that put the most pressure on inflation in the eighth month of the year, health stands out -which is impacted by the 11.3% rise in prepaid-, transport and communications -linked to the rise in bus and train tickets – and leisure, which was one of the categories with the most increases last month due to the rise in the exchange rate and the winter holidays”, they analyzed.
A little more moderate was the projection of Ecolatina, which for August projects inflation decelerating to the 6% zone. “To the strong inertia dragged by the inflationary phenomenon will be added the traction of the increases in bus and train fares in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (+40%), prepaid (+11.3%), expenses (+ 8% on average). To this will be added a new acceleration of the crawling peg, in a context of little firepower of the control measures in the face of the lack of a robust anchor that stabilizes expectations”, they highlighted from the consultancy.
Below Ecolatina’s estimate was that of the consulting firm Econviews, which projected 5.9% for August. “The high-frequency data shows a worrying dynamic that if continued would take the record to a higher level. The regulated will weigh this month, with the updating of the rate charts, particularly electricity and gas, the rate of public transport in the AMBA, the new rise in prepaid and the updating of rents, “they detailed.
According to the Central Bank’s REM, at the end of July, market analysts projected that retail inflation for the current year will be 90.2% year-on-year.
Source: Ambito
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