Ruben Ullua, a financial analyst, indicated: “The rate hike was one of the few tools left for the Government to deal with the current scenario, in order to stop the outflow of flows to the dollar. It is a valid tool and can temporarily contain the exit of investors towards dollarized portfolios. However, the market will demand more and will be looking at the BCRA’s ability to recover reserves. In this sense, the measure will allow stabilization in the short term, but it will not be enough for the medium term”.
Diego Martinez Burzaco head of strategy at Inviu, considered that “the rise was important, not only in response to the inflation data that was known for July, but also due to the inflationary inertia that the first days of August showed.” “We are facing an annual effective rate of almost 100%, which can contribute to a demand for investments in pesos, at least in the short term. However, so that the results are not ephemeral, it must be complemented with fiscal measures and accumulation of reserves”, he expanded.
For its part, John Manuel Franco, chief economist of SBS Group, He pointed out: “Looking at the exchange plan, although in the margin the rise in rates can decompress pressures, the key will be to take some turn in economic policy that allows reserves to be accumulated, in a context in which the BCRA has been a strong seller for weeks. . We believe that achieving stabilization will largely depend on anchoring expectations that are increasingly unanchored, and that the key to this is giving concrete signs of fiscal consolidation that reduce the Treasury’s financing needs”.
In this line, Mauro Natalucci, of Rava Stock Market, He did not rule out a further decline in financial dollars due to the inclination of investors to the interest rate and less pressure on parallel exchange rates. However, he pointed out that “it will also depend on the expectations and credibility generated by the government and Sergio Massa in these months until December.”
Source: Ambito
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