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Economy: China’s economy will only grow by three percent in 2022

Economy: China’s economy will only grow by three percent in 2022

The strict corona measures have weighed heavily on the second largest economy. There are signs of a recovery this year. But economists warn against too high expectations.

Against the background of the chaotic corona situation and other economic problems, China missed its growth target for the past year. As the statistics office in Beijing announced on Tuesday, the second largest economy grew by three percent compared to the previous year. Growth in the fourth quarter was reported at 2.9 percent.

The government had aimed for a target of around 5.5 percent for 2022, which could not be achieved. In 2021, China’s economy had grown by 8.4 percent. Economists had previously expected even weaker growth. The World Bank forecast annual growth of just 2.7 percent for the Chinese economy.

Abrupt reversal in corona measures

The strict zero-Covid strategy with lockdowns and other restrictions in particular slowed down the Chinese economy in the past year, which is also suffering from a severe real estate crisis, high levels of debt and weak domestic demand. On December 7, the leadership in Beijing made an abrupt about-face and abolished most of the corona measures after a good three years. Since then, however, the coronavirus has been spreading rapidly in the country, which is now also having a negative impact on economic activity.

Many metropolises resembled ghost towns in December, as people did not go out because of illness or fear of infection. Life is now back to normal. But there are still reports of overwhelmed hospitals and crematoria.

The State Health Commission has given the number of corona victims since the beginning of December at around 60,000. However, projections by international experts assume significantly higher numbers. According to estimates by the London-based data processor Airfinity, there have been over 400,000 deaths since the beginning of December. By the end of April, the number of corona deaths could increase to 1.7 million.

Consumer confidence has suffered

German companies are hoping that China’s economy will recover this year. “China’s recent departure from the zero-Covid policy is a welcome development and will help restore business confidence in the medium and long term,” said Jens Hildebrandt, executive board member of the German Chamber of Commerce (AHK) in Beijing.

“From the second or third quarter, many companies expect a more positive development for their business.” However, this is dependent on consumer confidence, which has suffered in recent years.

Source: Stern

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