The sum of factors suggests that the first quarter of this year will not be able to resemble the record of 2022 at all, when between January and March almost US$8,000 million entered. In this 2023 the economy will have fewer dollars because significant cuts are expected in the soybean and corn harvest, added to what has already happened with wheat.
According to the latest work from the Rosario Stock Exchange, 12 million tons of a soybean crop previously forecast at 49 million tons, that is, 25% of the total, have already been lost. Meanwhile, the oilseed campaign, the country’s main foreign exchange earning product, would end with a harvest of only 37 million tons and its exports could fall by more than US$7.5 billion.
Meanwhile, the latest projections from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange anticipate that exports from the main granary complexes would fall between a minimum of US$9.2 billion to a maximum of US$14.1 billion. This represents nothing less than a drop in GDP of between 1 and 1.8% and in terms of tax collection the State would stop receiving between US$3.100 and US$4.700 million.
In this context, this year will also play a key factor that can also delay the sales of producers as has happened in other years. It is that the presidential elections and a possible change of economic course or not, ends up establishing a waiting compass in soybean sales. In short, that producer who needs financing will sell, but the truth is that many others will wait for a clearer picture.
Source: Ambito
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