“Obviously there will be a third stage which is on December 10 where there will be a new government that is going to have to put all the meat on the entrance spit. It is a year of much interrelation. The economy is neither more important nor is politics more important. The two influence each other with different emphases and according to the moment. We are still with a good level of activity that we will see how long it holds up. It’s going to be a busy year,” he said in dialogue with Radio Milenium.
Regarding the inflation figures, he highlighted that a year ago there was a scenario of around 5% acceleration in prices, although he stressed: “Last year it coexisted with a very strong and very important reactivation, which was even maintained towards the end of the year. The economy finished at a good level of activity in the fourth quarter.”
However, he was not optimistic that the objective set out by the Government in the Budget will be achieved: “What one is imagining is that the inflation rate will have a hard time coming down, it will not go to 60% per year or 3% per month, It’s going to be hard to get down. February is spicy because we have the episode of the meatbut always under the idea that this is a macroeconomic phenomenon, but the level of activity that last year was very good gives me the feeling that at any moment a skid comes and that in this odd electoral year it is the turn of the recession that we previously had in non-electoral even years.”
Regarding the management of the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, he stressed: “Sergio Massa’s path is that he avoided derailing it because we ended up with the same fiscal hole that we had in our heads from day oneWhat happens is that it did not get worse. The great adjuster of the fiscal situation in Argentina is inflation itself: It is the one that liquefies public spending, the one that allows you to collect a little more… You sold inflation that helps adjust the public sector, one would say. There is always room for fiscal expansion plans, what cannot be avoided are the consequences”.
Facing the electoral scenario, he does not see a favorable outlook for the ruling party: “I believe that we are going to be in a scenario where The ruling party is not saying that it is resigned to losing but it is going to skip its chancesHe’s going to see if he stays with him second best consolation prize to win in the Province of Buenos AiresHow much does he ask Massa to loosen up. The consequences are going to be to leave a better idiot for the next one. If they have the right timing, I use the fruit of the parties and you pay for it. If you miscalculate or the market charges you faster, in one of those you have to pay for it. Inflation is going to have a hard time approaching the values that the ruling party has in mind.”
“You know that by January/February there was supposed to be a group of the population that was going to have to pay for electricity without a subsidy, the actual increase in non-subsidized would have to be 100%. Many of the things that are announced, when you later go to the numbers, do not generate any impact. Much advertising and few nuts. What you need is a program of comprehensive reform of the macroeconomic issue that includes going to a balanced fiscal position where it is not the only thing a fiscal adjustmentIt is not the traditional setting of the Fund’s stone chipping plan that later ends up being useless. The Argentina of today comes from 10 years of economic stagnation. After two years of good recovery, all we have done is go back to where we were in 2011, we had 95% inflation, there is a demand from society to change this but I don’t know if everything is available to face a reform accordingly”, he concluded.
Source: Ambito
