The focus of investors today is on the daily loss of reserves, which suggests that the Government will advance a new scheme for soybean exporters to settle the latest trends at a special exchange rate, as happened last September and December.
What alternatives does the market analyze?
“The drought hit the harvest very hard and now a ‘dollar III’ will come (…) The agricultural liquidations will be limited as we get closer to the elections (presidential in October) because they will look at the next government”, commented Daniel Artana from FIEL. “The government has a wrong look at the economy and thus it is difficult for it to get the forecast right.”
The perspectives “They are worrying, because the harvest projections continue to worsen due to the lack of rain, and the Government does not have much margin to push imports without further cooling the economy (…) With a BCRA without reserves, we believe that the government will end up adjusting the stocks even more and implementing temporary exchange schemes such as the ‘soybean dollar,'” said Isaías Marini from Econviews.
“The nominality of the economy seems to be aligned around 6% (of monthly inflation), currently, the rate of the 28-day ‘Leliq’ (letters) is equivalent to 6.2% in terms of monthly effective rate (TEM) while that the BCRA accelerated the devaluation rate to the 6% zone in the first rounds of February”, commented Tobías Pejkovich of Facimex Valores.
“Now clearly the risk of the projection (in the BCRA rate) is upwards and not downwards”said Alejandro Giacoia of EconViews. “The demand for money usually falls in February and March, which is why it would not be good if the rate also discourages the (use of the) peso as savings,” he stated.
blows from abroad
“In a year of shortage of currency supply, the agreements will seek to avoid a brake on imports from Brazil and the damage that this could cause to the activity. For example, within the measures in progress, the expansion of financial institutions that offer pre-financing tools for imports and exports and the extension of terms turns out to be the most feasible to start operating in the short term,” published Ecolatina.
“The markets begin to incorporate more rate hikes by the Fed (US Federal Reserve) during 2023 in the face of the resurgence of inflationary fears“, said Portfolio Personal Investments (PPI).
“In January, inflation accelerated and the upward pressure set by the prices of services is worrying. The producer price index also exceeded expectations and marked the largest increase since June of last year. This, added to the solid sales data January Retailers, led to increased expectations of rate hikes by the Fed, which also strengthened the dollar globally“, summarized the liquidation and clearing agent Cohen.
Source: Ambito
