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expect more than 6% for February and almost 100% for 2023

expect more than 6% for February and almost 100% for 2023

Meanwhile, they projected inflation of 6.3% for March and around 5.8% monthly average between March and August of this year.

Those who best predicted this variable in the short term (TOP-10) expect inflation of 6.2% for February, and 102.9% yoy for 2023 (7.6 pp higher than the January survey).

In turn, the REM participants reviewed the forecasts for the following periods, placing inflation at 81.7% yoy for 2024 (2.1 pp higher than the previous REM) and at 53.8% yoy (+3.5 pp) for 2025.

Regarding the Core CPI -which does not include goods and services with seasonal characteristics or those regulated-, the analysts projected a monthly variation of 6.0% for February (0.6 pp above the forecast of the previous survey) and revised upwards the core inflation forecasts for 2023, placing it at 97.5% year-on-year (yoy) (2.0 pp more than previous REM).

The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) will report on Tuesday, March 14, the evolution of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February.

The data published this Friday by the Central Bank correspond to the survey carried out between February 24 and 28, which had 40 participants, including 26 local and international consultants and research centers and 14 financial entities from Argentina.

REM for February: dollar, GDP, rates, trade balance, primary deficit

Regarding the wholesale nominal exchange rateforecast an average of $202.67 per dollar for March 2023, which implies a 5.6% expected monthly variation.

Besides, estimated a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the year of 0%Therefore, they reduced their forecast with respect to the value contemplated in the previous REM by 0.5 pp, and 1% for 2024.

Analysts from the financial market also estimated that during this month the Bablar rate of private banks will be located at 95%, slightly higher than the average rate registered during the month of February 2023 (69.77%).

On balance of tradethose who participate in the REM estimated a value of exports (FOB) for 2023 of US$80,138 million, and for imports of US$75,045 million, for which they contemplate a drop of 9.4% in the value of exports and 7.9% for imports.

Finally, the projection of the Nominal primary fiscal deficit of the Non-Financial National Public Sector (NFPS) made by the participants for 2023 was $3.198 billion.

Source: Ambito

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