The report Latin Focus Forecast March, a study that includes the estimates of 45 consultants and local and foreign financial entities, indicates that 2023 will close with inflation 98.7%.
The high issuance, the public deficit and an exchange rate subject to controls, adds to the escalation of the prices of commodities worldwide because of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
“The devaluation of the peso and the financing of the fiscal deficit, volatile energy prices and fiscal largesse before the October elections are key risks”, the study needs.
The FocusEconomics work lists the highest inflation estimates made by the consultants: EcoGo (+118.6%), Invecq Consulting (+118%), EMFI (+117.5%), Banco de Galicia (+115, 4%), Barclays Capital (+115%).
Regarding Argentina’s GDP, they indicate that it will close the year at 645,000 million dollars.
They forecast a wholesale dollar at $345 by the end of December, in contrast to the $269 estimated in the National Budget.
The consultancies that estimate a higher exchange rate for December are EcoGo ($476 per dollar), Econviews ($461), C&T Asesores ($460), Aurum Valores ($450) and BancTrust & Co ($427).
Domestic prices are “overheating” and economists’ estimates are getting closer and closer to inflation above 100% by 2023
Latin Focus proposes, regarding the expansion of Argentina’s GDP, a drop in activity of 0.5% per year by 2023.
The most negative projections on economic activity for this year correspond to EcoGo (-3.1%), Banco Supervielle (-3.1%), Invecq Consulting (-3%), Econometrica SA (-2.8%) and Bank of Galicia (-2.8%).
“The economy should register a contraction this year. Inflation and extremely high interest rates, along with falling savings, will affect domestic demand. Pre-election political uncertainty poses downside risks.”, estimates the study.
Source: Ambito
