The decision of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to making the reservation goal more flexible was read as “good” news by the business chambers, according to Ámbito sources from the private sector commented. However, they do not expect “relief” in access to the official dollar for importsdue to the loss of foreign currency that the drought will generate.
At the moment, access to the dollar to import is scheduled for some US$10,000 million that already have an access date until the end of the year, with the companies that are in the Fair Prices agreement with “immediate access” and “green channel ”. Consultants estimate that some US$8,000 million more will be needed to avoid a drop in activity, outside of the “roll over” of commercial debt.
Business expectations
sources of the Argentine Industrial Union They commented: “Nobody thinks of an improvement, because the flexibility of the IMF and lower energy prices are going to be offset by losses due to drought.” In fact, the same businessmen closely follow the data from the Rosario Stock Exchange, which estimated that losses could exceed US$14 billion in wheat, corn and soybeans.
In any case, from the Ministry of Economy, headed by Sergio Massa, they assure that they do not have the final number of losses, because it will depend on the weather. “Some estimate losses of US$9,000 million, others US$20,000 million, whoever says they are certain is lying, because it depends on the rain, until 20 days from now we will not know precisely,” said one tall fountain of the Palacio de Hacienda.
A businessman from the chamber that groups food companies (Copal) was pessimistic that the change in the agreement with the IMF favors imports: “What could favor are the agreements that can be signed with other countries, either swap or bilateral loans. We know that there are negotiations with Brazil, China, Uruguay, India, and Japanand we hope that more will join”.
Although during the visit of the president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, announcements were made that could improve imports with that country, they have not yet been implemented. “The negotiations continue,” commented sources from the Argentine Embassy in Brazil.
The issue was present in the trip made last week by the Secretary of Commerce, Matías Tombolini, along with his Industry counterpart, José Ignacio de Mendiguren, to relaunch a Production and Commerce commission with businessmen and officials from various countries. “There will be positive news,” they commented from Commerce.
Anyway, At the UIA, the financing of Brazil for more than a year is far away, with guarantees, and expansion of the payment system in local currency. “We see that there is political intent, but Massa is going to have to get some rabbit out of the hat, because he is stuck by the banking bureaucracies, to define the issue of guarantees, documentation and collaterals,” explained UIA sources.
Which they do see it as more “feasible” to continue expanding the yuan swap with China. “It is already being used and it works,” said an industrialist. Of the US$ 5,000 million announced, US$ 3,000 million were made available, and another US$2 billion could be available in the coming months”, said the Argentine ambassador to China, Sabino Vaca Narvaja. In May, Massa will travel to China, and progress could be made with the accession of Argentina New Development Bank of the BRICSmade up of China, Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa.
Without an additional offer of dollars, the consulting firm Invecq estimates that it will be necessary for importers to pay off the commercial debt accumulated in 2022, which they estimate at US$10,000 million and, in addition, they assure that additional financing of up to US$8,000 will be necessary. millions. “Even in this scenario, for the exchange balance to balance, the fall in the amounts imported accrued should be around 9% to 11% compared to 2022 levels,” they estimated. To get there, from Invecq they believe that it could materialize either due to the recession, or due to greater restrictions on imports.
Along the same lines, the consulting firm PxQ of Emmanuel Álvarez Agis estimates that, if exports are affected by the drought, it would imply a 7.5% retraction in imports compared to 2022, which, due to the elasticity of imports to GDP, “would be consistent with a drop in activity of around 3%”.
On this subject, in Economy they assure: “In the second quarter there will be measures to compensate with other instruments the lower inflow of dollars so that there is no drop in activity.”
SIRA Overview
With the new SIRA system, the Government authorized imports for US$27,335 million between October and February of this year. Outside of items such as health and energy, the most benefited sector were the companies that are in Fair Prices, which agreed to imports for US$3,501 million, with an “immediate” approval period. However, what is effectively “scheduled” for 2023, that is, the amount of dollars that companies will access on a certain date, is US$9.2 billion, according to data from Customs last week.
Source: Ambito
