Brazil will have to supply up to half of the soybeans that Argentina will import to keep its industrial operations running, especially the demand for oil and flour for exportbefore a drought historical that devastated the country’s 2022/23 harvest, according to analysts.
Versus a harvest estimated by the market at about 25 million tons, from 42 million last seasonthe country could import up to 10 million tons of soybeans, or more than double the volume purchased in previous yearswhen the origin was mainly Paraguay.
As Scope had anticipated, The closest precedent to this situation is the April 2018/March 2019 cycle when 7.2 million tons were imported And for this year, the USDA is already anticipating that some 6.2 million tons should be purchased from abroad, a volume that has already become outdated with the new production losses.
Counting on a record harvest, Brazil could increase shipments to Argentina by at least 10 timessaid arcdeacon sunhead of Latin American grains at hEDGEpoint Global Markets, based in Rosario.
remembered that the average annual shipment of soybeans from Brazil to Argentina would normally be 300,000 tonsbut in 2023 the brazilians could represent the supply of at least 3 million tonsgiven that Paraguay would not be able to supply the additional volumes What do Argentines need?
“(The possibility of reach 5 million tons if international soybean meal prices pay -and I think they will-, since Argentine soybean meal supply is difficult to replace“said Arcidiacono.
He pointed out that in addition to the fact that the country faces one of the worst droughts in 100 yearswhat has reduced the oilseed harvest by 45% compared to initial estimatesthe commercialization by the Argentine farmers is the lowest in 20 years.
“Brazil, if it confirms a harvest of more than 152 million tons, would have the capacity to export up to 97 million tons (for all destinations) and could meet practically all of Argentina’s import demand,” he said. Carlos Cogo, director of the consultancy Cogo.
agree that Brazil could export 5 million tons of soybeans to Argentina, or more, especially if China -the largest buyer of Brazilian grain- comes with less appetite.
Cogo pointed out that Paraguayan is also a major supplier, but it has supply limitations, since its soybean crop is estimated at around 8.8 million tons. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the Paraguayan harvest 2022/23 at 10 million tons.
Luis Fernando Roque, Safras & Mercado analyst, commented that Brazil sent almost 230,000 tons of the oilseed to Argentina in the first two months of 2023, compared to only 167 kilos in the same period last year, which indicates that the volumes will continue to grow during the year.