They are looking for another $10 billion. More rains (some torrential). The Argentine sunflower, chosen by India. The dairy gets worse. The Institute with a new president.
The new head of the IPCVA, the ruralista from Bahia, Jorge Grinberg, a storm pilot in an election year.
… that, sooner than expected, the new agricultural dollar will burst. Much broader than the previous versions (soybeans I, II and III), it would cover all farm products, including wood, and it seeks to advance foreign exchange earnings for exports of around US$10,000 million during April and May . To achieve this, from Economy they let it be known that also those who scored exports, and who did not enter the currencies, will receive some benefits. For some, the expectations are too optimistic”, since some US$3,000 million are expected, only from the economies outside the Pampas. The fact is that the sharp fall in the soybean harvest must be compensated (less than 25 million tons, plus another 4-5 million tons left over from the previous season). The other large volume will be corn, also severely reduced this year, which would leave some 20 million tons for export, since the remaining 15 would be for domestic and surplus consumption.
… that, while several areas begin to receive more regular rains, and the lower temperatures help recovery, the heavy agricultural losses registered in this campaign are being verified, which would exceed 40 million tons, to the point that among private companies it is estimated that the soybeans could barely reach between 23 and 25 million tons, half of what had been harvested, and well below the record of more than 60 million tons that it reached a few years ago. The issue, which will impact both private income and the country’s, and the level of tax collection, will also force greater temporary imports of beans of at least 12-14 million tons, to reduce part of the strong industrial installed idle capacity (73% in March), prepared to grind almost 70 million tons. This elusive fate for what was “the queen of oilseeds” has little to do with the excellent performance achieved in this cycle by sunflowers, the only annual crop that managed to “get out” of the very bad climatic contingencies, which that will allow it to harvest close to 4 million tons, and with exports that will be around US$2,000 million. “India is going to receive everything they send it,” said one of the sectoral leaders of that country, a member of the delegation that attended the International Sunflower Conference, which will end tomorrow, at the Hilton. In fact, the complex, the 8th largest exporter in the country, reached US$1,891 million last year (2.1% of the total), doubling the US$935 million of 1919. The fact is that of that amount, India bought almost 50% (US$894 million), becoming the first customer in this area. In turn, the European Union reached US$326 million; Nafta about US$275 million, and a striking Chile with US$148 million. Now, the prospects for the crop are almost optimal, and not only because of the excellent behavior it showed in the face of climatic contingencies, but also because of the greater quantity of seed that would be released to the local market this year (one of the bottlenecks for the planting last year), and due to the international situation that continues to affect the two main producers of the oilseed (Ukraine 55%, and Russia 24%) which, in the first of them, will affect the production of the next cycle, opening the possibilities from other bidders, such as Argentina.
… thatAlthough the climate is tending to calm down, there are still large regions that maintain deficits, and others have been registering excesses of varying magnitude, such as those that occurred in Entre Ríos yesterday (hail), or in Córdoba, with the overflow of rivers that caused heavy flooding in Río IV and La Carlota, among other areas. This has already alerted the north of Buenos Aires, accustomed to the fact that when the Quinto River rises, shortly after the flood wave enters Buenos Aires. Another alert comes from dairy farms, an activity particularly affected by the 3-year drought, which ended with all fodder reserves, and a good part of the pastures. This, added to the price differences (in less) with respect to international values that occurred in 2007, 2011, 2014 and 2022, according to CRA, determined that this entity requests the authorities “to declare the dairy farms an agricultural disaster : to be able to apply the few resources that we obtain to the feeding of our animals, without being forced to sell them at the meager price of necessity”. Something more attenuated could be the panorama for the new head of the IPCVA (Institute for the Promotion of Beef), the Buenos Aires ruralista Jorge Grinberg, who upon taking office recognized that “the domestic market is our main client.” He also highlighted that (due to the dry season) meat production is likely to be lower in this cycle than in previous ones.
Source: Ambito
