The problem increases more for some items, since official sources confirmed to Ambit that the surcharge of 7.5% that had been applied to imports weeks ago will remain for nowTherefore, those who depend on foreign inputs will feel the pressure of the devaluation not by 22%, but, in almost 30%.
It should be remembered that, in August, the blue dollar which, despite being a limited market, serves as a price reference, accumulates a rise 24% or $164, from $551 with which he ended July. In the year, the parallel currency increased about 98%well above an inflation which will probably be close at 62%.
Rising prices, uncertainty and complications with imports
daniel rosatopresident of Industriales Pymes Argentinos (IPA), maintains in dialogue with Ambit that the devaluation caused the paralysis of “industrial activity“yesterday because the situation generated”great uncertainty“.
He comments that, in many cases, this scenario was in price increases, which reached “20%”“and in some situations, speculative increases“. However, Rosato was optimistic that, as the days go by, “a gradual normalization of activity as the government takes steps to address the situation and signals a trajectory more constant, avoiding ups and downs“.
Rosato, in particular, stressed the importance of “meet the needs of the industry as for the input imports and raw Materials essential for production
Retention of lists and remarking of prices “just in case”
Natalio Mario Grinmanpresident of the Argentine Chamber of Commerce and Services (CAC), comments to this medium that the devaluation caused the whole situation around trade, already tense, to become “tremendously complicated“.
“Uncertainty makes many businesses are almost paralyzed. There are suppliers that notify that they do not have a price list, others that are not selling and those that do sell are remarking just in case. So, it’s a stage very complex,” says Grinman.
The representative of Commerce announced that this volatility in this sector It will last about “60 days until the picture clears up in October“and emphasizes that the stage”It is very complex“.
Inflation and the transfer of the blue dollar to prices
In the first place, the increase in prices originates from devaluation of the official exchange ratewhich reached 22%, in addition to the taxes applied to those who choose to exchange their dollars at that value, maintains damian di pacedirector of Focus Market, in statements to Ambit.
And he adds that, secondly, the lack of availability of dollars has led to the parallel market becoming “a reference for priceslocated between the official exchange rate, plus taxes and the value of the parallel, according cash with settlement (CCL)“.
Say Pace warns that this situation “indeed“It will lead to an acceleration of the prices of the economy, under his watch”very strong” and, above all, it will be seen in the “mass consumption products“In fact, he assured that the negative effect on what it is is already being seen”hygiene and cleanliness and personal care“.
The market is still recalculating the impact of the devaluation in prices, but, of course, they warn that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could reach the two digits in the months to come.
The vision of industrial SMEs
Jose Luis AmmaturoPresident of the Argentine Chamber of the Small and Medium Metallurgical Industry, stated that “These shocks are not good for industrial or commercial activity because we are in a cone of uncertainty.”
In this sense, he added that “this jump considerably complicates SMEs since many companies have debts in dollars and today they have to pay 25% more, which adds enormous uncertainty over the next 69 days.” And he explains that “uncertainty directly affects the economy, the economy is confidence and, the measures that were taken in the last two years, all they did was create more uncertainty in the market; our SMEs were decapitalized with this abrupt increase in the dollar, with the tax added a few days ago and now, with this uncertain outlook”.
Jorge Sanvitaledirector of Mehcco SA, a leading SME in the national electricity industry, also described the situation as “complex” and, in relation to the increase in the dollar, explained that “we have ordered materials for months, including some from last year that did not they arrive, and when they do, we’ll have to pay them at current value. “The most worrying thing for us is that we have to respect old contracts with new rules of the game and that threatens the company since the update rates do not have the immediate impact of a devaluation like today’s and that hurts us enormously.”
The scenario is characterized by uncertainty for the productive sector and businessmen agree on the difficulties generated by deferred collections. “Requesting a merchandise, not knowing its value at the time of paying for it and receiving payment after 60 days affects our work, devalues it and creates uncertainty,” Sanvitale said.
Pablo Rudapresident of the Argentine Chamber of the Fair Industry, indicated that “It is very difficult to commit to carrying out the projects due to instability and it is complex to guarantee the price and material to the client due to the lack of delivery and completion in a timely manner.”
“These jumps in currency stop the productive chain: on the one hand, primary suppliers stop selling and delivering merchandise and stop the wheel, on the other, suppliers that work 100% with imported products or that buy from importers, if this simbronazo He catches them in the middle of an operation, they have to have the capital to be able to finish what they started and it is very complex to solve ”, explained Ruda.
Ammaturo insisted that the situation “is quite complex” but that it is not due to the value of the blue dollar, which is “a reference”, but because “companies do not get dollars to pay their suppliers and that is the biggest problem since it can cause shortages”. “This situation is going to generate an increase in costs and a lack of merchandise,” he remarked.