He Dolar blue It remains in the $900 area and is moving away from its historical record of $1,100, which it reached after the elections. Since then, the informal drops about 11% and the same line seems to run through the dollar “Cash with Settlement” with a drop of 8% from the value it reached on October 23 ($935). He MEP dollarmeanwhile, runs in another direction and has only dropped 4% since then, an exchange rate in which the central bank He lowered his level of intervention after the elections.
According to analysts, Sergio Massa position as the candidate with the most votes with a difference of 7 percentage points with respect to Javier Milei, moderated the expectation of devaluation and dollarization of portfolios.
This led investors to think that the official dollar would move as expected in the month of November and then the crawling peg would return. Even more so, given that Milei advocated forced dollarization and a destruction of the Central Bank, leading on the Friday before the general elections to an absolute run on free dollars and placing them at historical highs.
Blue dollar and CCL on the decline: why is it?
From Personal Portfolio Investments, They pointed out that there are two issues that have changed since the General Elections and that have driven the abrupt fall of the main financial dollar: the drop in the probability that Milei will implement dollarization and the extension of the Export Increase Program.
“On the one hand, the perception that there will be no dollarization based on Monday’s results, both for Massa winning or by Milei winning with a less disruptive program. On the other hand, the extension of the Increase Program Exporter to all exports until November 17 deepened the fall as of Tuesday (last)”, they estimated.
According to PPI, now the big unknown is how much more can the CCL go down, given that on Friday Pre-PASO was trading at $788, prior to confirming the third party scenario and Milei being the most voted candidate.
“Returning to this level would imply an additional drop of 9.4%. However, it is worth mentioning that this value had a possible victory for Together for Change incorporated, which contained the rise. Returning to what happened in the week, thanks to With this strong decline, the exchange gap compressed from a record for this century of 200% on pre-election Friday to 148.6%, still remaining at atypically high levels“, they detailed.
For its part, Delphos Investment argues in a recent report that the calm of financial dollars “appears to continue.”
“Although the market perceives less risk of dollarization, either due to the possibility of a defeat of the liberal candidate or his alliance with the PRO, the search for hard currency coverage continues to slow down. This is seen not only in the drop in the intraday volatility of the MEP dollar in recent days, compared to previous days, but also in the volume reduction on the AL30 due to less need for intervention.”
Financial dollar: can the decline continue?
According to the stockbroker GMA Capital, The strong rise in the value of the dollar counted with liquidation in the run-up to the General elections responded to processes of panic and general fear of disorderly dollarization, which was proposed as a possible path against a potential victory for Javier Milei in the first round.
“The concern around this proposal lay in the acute shortage of dollars. With negative net reserves of around $7 billion, only a greater liquefaction would facilitate the process. At a CCL of $1,000, the BCRA’s liabilities are equivalent to $36 ,000 million, at $ 1,500 per dollar that stock would be reduced to $ 24,000 million and $ 12,000 with a dollar of $ 3,000. In this scenario, a exorbitantly high and crazy exchange rate It was a necessary condition for rapid dollarization. The dynamics of recent weeks had partially influenced this scenario in prices,” they calculated.
For this reason, although the ALyc highlighted the sharp decline that the exchange gap After Massa’s victory, the value of the currency is still at historically high levels. The decline in financial dollars would force the blue dollar to lower prices in nominal terms added to a greater offer due to tourism.
“In view of greater standardization, cash with liquid would still have room to become cheaper in real terms. However, this time window of carry trade“Like any speculative strategy, it is plagued by asymmetric risks, not only due to political vicissitudes but also due to the degree of deterioration of the economy,” they concluded.
Source: Ambito
