The consulting firm Analytica is preparing an extensive report based on official data on the execution of State spending in the first month of the year. Ámbito was able to access an advance of this work that marks a average contraction of almost 37% year-on-year in real terms. The bulk of the adjustment falls on items linked to retirees, such as the payment of pension benefits and resources for PAMI. There were also significant cuts in public works, social programs and transfers to provinces.
The blender moves forward. The thing is The 211% inflation in 2023, added to the fact that last year’s budget was extended for 2024, configure a scenario of spending cuts with high levels of discretion. for the Executive. Added to this is that for at least twelve months, with the previous administration, cuts had already been made in real terms.
The consulting firm Analytica directed by economist Ricardo Delgado is processing the official data for a detailed report. The advance payment of that document to which Ámbito accessed shows a average year-on-year drop of 36.9% in state spending. With this scenariothe item that accounted for the largest part of the adjustment is linked to retirees: spending contracted in constant pesos by 1.1 trillion.
Specifically, during January the government of Javier Milei cut retirement, pension and PAMI expenses by 43.2% year-on-year in real terms. The strong acceleration of inflation during the months of November and December, added to the fact that no increases were granted in the bonus that those who received up to two minimum salaries were receiving, collaborated in the pre-existing liquefaction of pension spending.
Then followed public works, with a drop of 70%, which is explained by the paralysis of more than 3,000 projects throughout the country. In fact, last week at a federal meeting, the chamber that brings together companies in the sector declared activity in a “state of emergency” at the request of its bases. They assure that 1,400 companies and 200,000 jobs are at risk.
Besides, a pruning of 58.9% was evident in transfers to provinces which promises to bring about a judicial dispute: La Rioja has already taken its case to court and this Monday the governor of the province of Buenos Aires Axel Kicillof warned that if the shipments continue to be trampled he will go to court.
In this first x-ray put together based on the open budget of the Ministry of Economy, an increase in spending on subsidies is seen because the planned cuts have not yet been applied. The bulk of this cut will only be seen in the rates for March and April. Other items affected according to the Analytica report were: social programs, 40.8%, goods and services 50.2%, family allowances and AUH 19.2%, personnel spending 18.2%.