One of the most listened to economists in the city is Esteban Domecqfrom the consultancy Invecqand precisely in a radio interview he issued harsh warnings regarding the predictions about the dollar and inflation.
“If he crawling “it goes to 2% with inflation of 15%, the exchange rate delay happens to be in June at the same starting point that the previous government left you, with which there will be no liquidation of agriculture,” He expanded in dialogue with Radio Rivadavia.
In this regard, he explained that “if inflation does not drop to the single-digit level in April, May at the latest, the real appreciation [del dólar contra el peso] it will be such that you are going to have a devaluation around the corner“.
For Domecq the crawling 2% is sustainable and that should be raised the loss of value of commodities, 10% so far this year. This “compromises this strategy” since there could be un lower dollar income once the agriculture begins to liquidate the thick harvest.
For Domecq, then, the Government faces three factors that he defined as Achilles’ heels and that make it difficult to meet inflation projections, which are: the exchange gap, regulated prices, and parity.
On exchange gap He assured that “it has to go very low because it is a devaluating expectation, if the gap goes to 30%, well, they have more or less mitigated this mechanism, they have a chance.”
As for the regulated price adjustments He said that “the accumulated inflation of December and January is 51%, there are things that are still delayed such as electricity, gas or fuels in GBA”, which increased 13% in the same period.
And he expanded: “You had a completely distorted relative price scheme and in December a process of unfreezing relative prices began, but gradually in which you still have a lot of repressed inflation left and whose impact becomes seasonally strong in the months of March and April“.
Finally he mentioned the joint recomposition that “generates pressure”, all “apart from a recessive economy that serves as an anchor for inflation”, an element on which “the economic team stops.”
“If the Stabilization Plan is successful and if the real anchors, which are fiscal and monetary pressure and recession, are effective, then the Government you can score a bean to achieve this [inflación a un dígito en abril]”, considered the economist.
However, for him the “probability of occurrence is not high”, so “there is a risk of rebound” For both the month of March and April, it closed.
Source: Ambito
