Since fighting has also begun in the Russian region of Kursk, the price of gas on the exchange has been rising. However, experts do not believe that the higher prices will be passed on to consumers – under one condition.
According to energy expert Malte Küper, the increase in wholesale gas prices following the Ukrainian counterattack on Russia is unlikely to have an impact on consumer gas prices. “If we now have price fluctuations that will only last a few weeks, then that will have no impact on the prices that households pay for natural gas,” Küper told the German press agency dpa. The reason for this is the generally long-term purchasing strategy of energy supply companies. Küper is a consultant for energy and climate policy at the employer-friendly German Economic Institute (IW) in Cologne.
On Monday, natural gas cost almost 43 euros at times
The important Sudzha gas transfer station is located in the Russian territory occupied by Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region. It has presumably been in Ukrainian hands since the counterattack. Russian natural gas is transported through it across Ukraine to Slovakia, Austria and other European countries. Since the attack became known, the price of a megawatt hour of natural gas on the Dutch trading platform TTF has risen steadily. On Monday, the price of natural gas to be delivered in September reached almost 43 euros per megawatt hour, a level last seen in early December 2023.
Küper believes the main reason for the rise in wholesale prices is the market’s concern about the station being accidentally destroyed in the course of hostilities, such as a missile strike. “I cannot see any Ukrainian interest in stopping anything now,” said the expert. If accidental damage does occur, Austria could be supplied with natural gas via Germany and Italy.
Industry more affected by price increases than households
According to Küper, if the current price increase continues for a longer period of time, industry would be more affected than household customers. The reason is that industrial companies often feel price fluctuations on the stock exchange more directly or earlier than household customers due to a different procurement strategy. Smaller price differences also have a greater impact on energy-intensive industrial companies than on households.
TTF natural gas exchange price
Source: Stern
