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private companies estimate growth of 4% (with dichotomy in financial matters)

Some of this is present in the reasoning of the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, who starts from the hypothesis that “what is real” has much more weight than what is “financial.” When presenting his negotiation proposal with the IMF, which aims to close imbalances within five years, he considers that speeding up the fiscal adjustment would kill the recovery. According to private estimates, last year’s GDP grew 10%, thus recovering all the fall that it had endured with the isolation of the previous year.

Based on it, FIDE estimates for 2022 “economic growth of around 4.3%, a slight slowdown in inflation (at end-to-end December 2022 values ​​of around 40%), a surplus trade balance and an exchange rate slide somewhat below the rhythm Of the prices”. For the 40 consulting firms and foundations that participate in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) of the Central Bank, GDP growth this year will be 2.9%.

On the financial side, the government started 2021 with an already high country risk of 1,391 points as of January 11 of last year and ended December 30 at 1,703 points. For its part, the blue dollar started the year at $ 160 and ended at $ 206.

The economic dichotomy is explained by foreign trade. The price of soybeans went from $ 456 in March to $ 500 at the end of December, with a peak of $ 536 in June. This differential contributed the dollars needed to finance the recovery above expectations.

While country risk grew and the BCRA was running out of reserve dollars, the “real” economy continued on its way. For October, the economic activity data reported by INDEC indicates an interannual growth of 6.4%. In the comparison with the same month of 2019, the economy is almost at the same level, with a slight fall of 0.6% and in the accumulated, it registers an increase of 10.4%. The best continues to be industry and construction.

The utilization of the installed capacity of the manufacturing sector was 64.7% in October, 3 points above the same month of 2020 and 2.6 points above 2019. In December, the Association of Automotive Factories reported almost 40,000 cars manufactured, 32% more than in the same month of 2020.

For its part, the Center for Production Studies (CEPXXI) estimated in December, based on the energy consumption of the industry, that the sector “is 10.7% above the same period of 2019 and 9.5% above 2018 “, which ended the year” 6% above 2019. “Of 14 industrial sectors, 12 consumed more energy than in 2019. Non-metallic minerals stood out (24.2%,), oil refining (19.4% ), basic metals (18.3%) ”, it was indicated.

From the financial point of view, on the other hand, in the market some consider that Guzmán’s vision would not be very different from that of the IMF with a view to an agreement soon. For the consulting firm GMA Capital there is a greater alignment than is supposed. He assures that in terms of monetary policy and reserves, “the Executive’s vision is somewhat more aligned with what is expected in Washington” and in that sense, he highlights that “the BCRA raised the cost of money by 200 basis points (to 40% TNA) after more than a year of keeping it unchanged ”.

The investment fund manager Adcap maintains, for its part, that “a program with the IMF is possible” since “disagreements over the fiscal deficit would not imply a breakdown in the negotiations.”

Source From: Ambito

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