Inflationary and exchange rate pressures, therefore, are similar in January 2022 in relation to the 2020 crisis, but the current official exchange rate should be adjusted by 16.7% to “return” to the level of September 2020 in real terms..
In turn, despite the rise in recent weeks, the free segments of the dollar are still, in real terms, 20.2% below the peak recorded in September 2020: at today’s prices, the “blue dollar” It was listed at 275.7 pesos at that time.
To prevent the current crisis from replicating that experience, corrected and aggravated, it is essential that the government resume the fiscal and monetary restraint applied between October 2020 and June 2021, which in turn would be the key that could lead to reopening the negotiation with the IMF staff. It is not only the maturities with the agencies and the risk of incurring delays that make the current situation more serious in relation to that of September/October 2020, even more so when the global scenario is presented with turbulence, hand in hand with the expected rate hike in the United States
The drought and the lack of national gas available for winter consumption mean that the trade balance projections for 2022 are cut by 6 to 7 billion dollars compared to 2021, so the availability of foreign currency could condition the trajectory of the level of activity in 2022, given that each point of change in GDP requires an increase of 3 points in imports
Other variables reflect a greater deterioration of the macro in relation to 2020. For example, in 2021 the cost of economic subsidies (energy and transport) doubled the level registered a couple of years ago (in 2019), going from 1.7 to 3.4 points of GDP, with the risk of approaching the 4.0 points if immediate measures are not taken in terms of tariffs. Similarly, the financial cost of the BCRA’s Remunerated Liabilities, which in 2020 added the equivalent of 2.5% of GDP, climbed to 3.05% in 2021 and points to 3.6% of GDP in 2022, an ascending autonomous factor of monetary expansion
The accumulation of geological layers of unresolved problems causes distortions to surface beyond the nominal variables (inflation, devaluation), so cases such as power cuts in summer and the certain possibility of a lack of gas are not surprising. in winter. YPF’s stock market value is perhaps one of the simplest ways to reflect this deterioration, since it went from 9.0 billion dollars at the end of 2017 to a figure of around 1.5 billion at the start of 2022. In 2017, it was enough to multiply the value of YPF by 7.3 to “buy” a Petrobras. Now, the value of YPF needs to be multiplied by 46.5 to achieve equivalence with Petrobras.
Source From: Ambito
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