Bicycle economy: High discounts for bikes could expire this year

Bargain hunters were able to do good business in German bicycle trade last year. Even at the beginning of the 2025 season, dealers and manufacturers are already luring to list prices with significant discounts. The background is still well -filled camps in which millions of finished bikes are still waiting for customers and binding capital. But the trend could turn soon, say the bicycle industry and the dealer association VSF.

Despite the generally increased consumer prices, customers had to spend 300 euros less for an average e-bike last year than in the previous year, as reported by the Ziv Ziv two-wheeler industry. At the same time, the prices for conventional bikes rose easily, but the bottom line was that the total turnover decreased by 10.3 percent to 6.33 billion euros with almost the same number.

Late consequences of the Corona crisis

The trade continues to fight with the late consequences of the Corona crisis. If the sudden increased demand could not be covered during the pandemic, a phase of overproduction and the dilappled purchase interest followed. In 2024, 3.85 million bikes were sold in Germany. That was only slightly (-2.5 percent) less than 2023, but the record from the first Corona year 2020 with a good 5 million pieces removed.

However, the decline of 1.1 million pieces is due to the bikes without an engine, while in 2024 over 2 million e-bikes found their customers. 2024 is the second year in a row in which more e-bikes were sold in Germany than muscle-powered bicycles. “The electric component will continue to grow to 70 to 75 percent,” says Ziv Civician Burkhard Stork.

And the sheet of prices turns. 30 percent of member companies already reported a normalized inventory, says Caroline Bonn from the VSF dealer association. Another 46 percent calculated in the course of this year, only a quarter of a quarter will see problems until 2026. The dealers simply ordered significantly less for the new season and broken down excess stands.

The German manufacturers as well as the importers deliver only 3.16 million bikes in 2024 – after 4.36 million a year earlier. Domestic production as well as the wheel import were significantly reduced.

The fear of the pig cycle

If the trade from commercial caution is now reserved for the coming year, a so-called pig cycle threatens: the reduced supply could not meet stable demand and prices would increase more than actually necessary. According to Stork, industry wants to prevent this and flexibly react to the requirements of trade with the shortest possible lead times. “The trade will order again,” says VSF managing director Uwe Wöll. But even then in 2026 the times of the very high discounts should be over.

A obstacle to the further paragraph could be the longer shelf life of the bikes sold. According to the industry, the batteries and thus the entire e-bikes last significantly longer than expected and are only scrapped after an average of eight to nine years. As a result, the existence of e-bikes in Germany has grown to 15.7 million pieces last year. That is a good three million bikes more than the update of previous forecasts has been accepted since 2014.

There have long been more bicycles (88.7 million) than humans (83.6 million) in Germany. Industrial representative Stork remains optimistic, however, to be able to increase the per capita quota to the Dutch value of 1.3. In the opinion of the association, the billion -dollar investments in the infrastructure, which are planned by the upcoming federal government, should also contribute to this. Better cycling conditions in everyday life and leisure were among the investments that could be implemented the fastest.

Market data two-wheeler industry association