He Government It does not have much margin to grant taxes beyond those already gave. Among them, the elimination of export withholdings for some 3,800 export firms. It is for that reason that As of June, he will try to recover tax collection With the restitution of Export rights for soybeans, wheat and corn.
Resource recovery goes in line with the aim of achieving this year A primary surplus of at least 1.3% of GDP, as committed to the IMF. By decision of the National Government that margin could be stretch at 1.6% in 2025.
In order to improve the liquidation, at the end of January the Government ordered for soybeans a decrease from 33% to 26%, and for its derivatives, from 31% to 24.5%. Also were applied to wheat, barley, corn and sorghum, whose rights decreased from 12% to 9.5%, as well as for sunflower, which were reduced from 7% to 5.5%. Together with that measure, he ordered the Definitive elimination of the Tax for Regional Economies.
Withholdings: how much the treasury lost in the first half of 2025
According to data from the Ministry of Economy, The measure cost the national administration about $ 800,000 million In the first half of the year.
In that sense, the Institute of Economic Research for Argentina and Latin American Reality (IERAL) estimated that the government could recover the equivalent au $ S930 million in the remainder of the year. To the wholesale exchange rate is Little more than $ 1 billion.
“In exchange for a short -term fiscal improvement (not exceeding 0.1% of GDP), there is a risk of stopping investmentslimit technology and discourage expansion in regions with more challenges. The agro responds to the incentives: uploading the withholdings can cost more than what it collects, ”warns the IERAL report. The Entity based in Córdoba ensures that the restitution of retentions It is a bad signal for the field, when subtracting profitability.
The government could obtain some more weights, but at the cost of losing dollars Due to the decrease in the exchange rate that discourages entrepreneurs to detach themselves from their production.
How many grains would they remain without liquidation
The study indicates that “doing some calculations and assumptions, if in the middle of the year there was Without marketing 50% of the exportable corn balance, 60% of soybeans and 20% of wheat of the 2024/2025 cycle, the Aliquota rise will generate, by these remaining grains and the expected international prices, an increase in collection Approximate of US $ 930 million in the period in which the commercialization (8/9 months) is completed ”.
“While there are other grains that can add some extra dollars, the fact is that the measure would have a relatively low impact in terms of collection and the result of fiscal year 2025 (Not greater than 0.1% of GDP 2025)”, Indicates the study of Ieral.
On the other hand, according to the consultant Labour, Capital & Grouth (LCG) The total collection of 2025 could be located in $ 197 billionso that with this the government will try to recover the equivalent of Half Fiscal Income Point.
Source: Ambito
