The OECD highlighted the strong economic recovery in Argentina and anticipated growth by 2025 and 2026, driven by consumption, investment and lifting of the exchange rate. Although it projects higher inflation than previously estimated.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Culmed the economic growth of Argentina of 5.7% in March compared to the current 5.2%, after the drop of 1.7% registered in 2024, but assured that in Argentina A “robust” recovery of the economy is underway.
According to the semiannual report of perspectives released on Tuesday, the OECD projects that Argentina’s GDP will achieve this year a “solid” expansion of 5.2% and that in 2026 4.3%will grow. These forecasts are an improvement regarding the projections included in the previous report, released last December, and predicted 3.6 % GDP growth for this year and 3.8 % by 2026. “A strong economic recovery is underway,” said the OECD.
According to the organism, Private consumption and investment “will continue to recover, driven by higher real income available, more favorable financial conditions and a business environment in improvement “, while the recent elimination of exchange restrictions” will promote new improvements in economic confidence and investment. “
What is the expectation of the OECD with inflation
With respect to high inflation, the agency foresees a slowdown after 219.9 % rise in 2024, although at a slower pace. While in its last December report the OECD projected for this year an inflation of 29.8 %, Now that forecast was upward, 36.6 %. By 2026, the agency predicts that consumer prices in Argentina will experience an increase of 14.9 %.
OECD highlighted Javier Milei’s policies
Regarding the economic policy of the Government of Javier Milei, the OECD highlighted the “impressive fiscal adjustment, which has resulted in a tax surplus of 0.3 % of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024”, with the commitment of the Executive to achieve a positive primary balance in 2025.
According to the report released on Tuesday, monetary policy has also contributed to macroeconomic stabilization, while the agreement signed in April with the International Monetary Fund will provide additional financing and will help rebuild the monetary reserves of the Argentine Central Bank.
prices inflation
With respect to the external sector, lOECD provides that Argentine exports grow 11.2 % this year -From 23.2 % in 2024-, affected by the recent appreciation of the Argentine peso.
The imports will have a strong recoverywith a 23.9 % rise this year -from a 10.6 % drop in 2024 -, supported by greater purchasing power and lower barriers to imports.
About the highest American tariffs, The OECD considers that these could result in lower export growth in Argentina, But notes that the export perspectives in the agricultural and livestock sector “could potentially benefit from changing commercial patterns.”
According to the report, exports to the United States represent only about 9 % of total exports in Argentina and about 1 % of GDP, and “To date they have not been significantly affected by US tariff increases.”
“Import tariffs and non -tariff commercial barriers in Argentina were reduced in 2024 and new reductions are expected in 2025,” adds the report.
Source: Ambito
