December 18 marks the deadline for payment of the bonus for all registered workers. This additional income, known as Complementary Annual Salary (SAC)represents for many a key opportunity to pay off debts, cover the expenses of the Christmas and New Year holidays, or even allocate it to investments with a medium and long-term perspective. Those who choose this last option have a question: is it advisable to invest in pesos or dollars with an eye on 2025?
How investments fared in 2024
In a brief recapitulation, it is observed that 2024 was an outstanding year for investments in pesos, with good adjusted returns, to the CCL dollar, which – in some cases – exceeded 140%. That happened with an unexpected and most conservative instrument: the fixed term. The assets adjusted by CER and S&P Merval They recorded returns of over 110%. In the case of the former, performance was driven by the strong impact of the devaluation during the first half of the year. For its part, the stock index reflected market optimism, supported by the perception that company prices were undervalued, which channeled investor confidence towards these companies.
Among the new features, Capitalization Letters (Lecap), a short-term instrument, became the star of the year for offering better returns than a “money market” and they gained popularity. In contrast, assets adjusted for the exchange rate had a modest performance, with marginal increases: the MEP barely increased by 2%, and the CCL, by 1.6%.
Analysts agree that, although the first quarter – after the devaluation – showed a strong loss in real terms, the yield curve progressively recovered. There was a small decline during May and June, but the second half consolidated positive gains.
Three key factors fueled optimism in the markets this year: strengthening reservations of the Central Bank (BCRA), the tax system and the political environment. On this last point, Javier Milei managed to rearrange himself politically and, despite the adjustment measures, maintained significant support from society, which validated his economic approach.
Investments: what is expected for 2025?
In the market, the message is clear: Profits similar to those in 2024 are not expected. While 2024 was an exceptional year for investments, 2025 will be marked by moderation as the primary challenge shifts from stabilization to growth.
In this context, some sectors show better expansion dynamics, but they also face a more demanding challenge: becoming more competitive, increasing production and redefining how to measure profitability in an environment with lower inflation and a more stable exchange rate. Besides, The elimination of the exchange rate – which is expected after legislative elections – adds an additional variable that companies must consider when planning their strategies. In this context, the question returns: is it convenient for analysts to invest in pesos or dollars?
“The ‘trade’ in pesos looks good, but has greater risk. And, beyond the ‘view’ that one can have with the CCL, the question is whether one wants to add that level of risk to the portfolio. In recent months, with Lecap in dollars, the investor won. If one was standing in the long ones, one obtained a 40% return in dollars. But, in the same term, bonds in US currency offered a very similar return. So when measured in dollars, “You realize that deep down you have an investment with the same or similar potential, but with less risk.”began Javier Casabal, Sr. Fixed Income Strategist at Adcap Grupo Financiero.
“The discussion is whether it is advisable to invest in pesos or dollars in a positive scenario. And the answer is: in the context in which everything goes well, the ‘trades’ in pesos are going to do very well. But, in one in which “Things have shocks, those who are stuck in pesos will feel it because of the volatility. That’s why, for the optimistic outlook, I prefer to stay in stocks,” he said. In this framework, for conservative profiles, it includes in its portfolio a percentage for MEP dollar, the Bopreal Series 3 and the T2X5 bond. Meanwhile, for the moderates, the YPF negotiable obligation (YMCXO).
On the other hand, for Sergio González, Head of Asset Management at Cohen Aliados Financieros, Asset management should focus on the needs and urgencies of investors. “For those who still have capital left over and can invest it, it is not a bad context to dollarize some of the leftover pesos, buying instruments in dollars, such as corporate bonds, or even sovereign debt, would be a good, slightly more conservative alternative. face to the first half of 2025, it could be a great month for risk assets, for the peso, if the foreseeable fiscal dynamics continue. Then it could be a great year for stocks, in an economy that should grow and with falling inflation,” he said.
On the other hand, he added that – with the exit of the stocks – investments can be promoted in productive sectors, such as mining, oil and gas and banks, which will have a more important credit portfolio. However, he clarified that, in the middle of next year, We are going to be “dancing” to the rhythm of the midterm elections, which is a factor to take into account.
Finally, the Grupo Sbs Research team released a portfolio for conservative, moderate and risky profiles. For the former, it incorporates the MEP dollar, common investment funds (FCI), a cedar, such as VISTA Energy, Ternium and two negotiable obligations of Telecom and Aluar (TLCOD and LMS770). Regarding the MEP, they clarify that ““The real price level of parallel dollars is at its lowest in May 2017 and very conservative profiles may choose to dollarize their pesos at a low exchange rate compared to recent years.”. For these profiles, the MEP dollar portfolio represents 45%.
Meanwhile, for moderate profiles, it once again includes a percentage in MEP (20%), Lecaps and fixed income funds, Pampa Energía, Transportadora Gas del Sur and Cedears such as JP Morgan, which may be favored by the flexibility that is expected to occur. make Donald Trump for the financial sector. Finally, for risky investors, he suggests another energy company, such as YPF, Cedears ETF (like EWZ) and Cedears, like Amazon.
Source: Ambito
I am an author and journalist who has worked in the entertainment industry for over a decade. I currently work as a news editor at a major news website, and my focus is on covering the latest trends in entertainment. I also write occasional pieces for other outlets, and have authored two books about the entertainment industry.
