Do the high number of cases over the summer and the associated immunity prevent a strong corona wave in autumn? Mathematician and modeler Christina Pagel explains why she thinks this is unlikely. And how high is the current number of unreported cases? The modeler Thorsten Lehr answers this.
Germany is in the midst of a summer wave. Will the numbers rise sharply again in autumn, Ms. Pagel?
There’s no reason to believe this won’t happen. In a few weeks the summer holidays will end, people will go back to work and the children will go to school. The number of contacts increases. In addition, Omicron is good at creating subvariants that bypass our immune response. The new omicron subtype Centaurus, which is currently spreading in India, could also take over here in the autumn – or possibly another omicron subvariant that will put our immune system to the test. The virus is tricky and has surprised us several times.
Source: Stern
