The corona virus raged in India for months. But the extent to which the country was affected is not shown by the official figures, but by two new studies. Accordingly, a majority of Indians already had Covid-19. And not hundreds of thousands died either, but probably millions.
In India, the coronavirus spread like wildfire in April, May and June. The number of new infections rose explosively within a very short time. Hospitals were overburdened. Images of thousands of dead floating in the Ganges went around the world. On some days, more than 400,000 new infections were reported, millions in total. And experts estimate the actual number of infections to be much higher. What was only suspected for a long time is now supported by a study that was published on Tuesday. It shows that many more Indians than previously known have already formed antibodies against the virus.
India is big and full. More than 1.36 billion people live in the country. Although more than six times as many people have already received at least one corona vaccination there than in Germany, that makes a total of just under 24 percent. 6 percent of the population are fully vaccinated. Antibodies are also developed by anyone who is infected with the virus. And that is probably much more in India than people who are vaccinated. In a serological study carried out by the state biomedical research facility Indian Council of Medicial Research (ICMR) in June and July, corona antibodies were detected in more than two thirds (67.7 percent).
Low vaccination rate, lots of antibodies
More than 36,000 Indians aged 6 and over from across the country took part in the study, with the majority (62 percent) not having received a vaccination at the time. In the last survey at the beginning of the year, antibodies were detected in just under a quarter of the participants – a sharp increase. And according to experts, proof that many more people were infected during the second corona wave than the delta variant in particular than the numbers previously indicated.
According to the results of the study, people aged 45 and over were most affected. This group had the highest seroprevalence level at around 77 percent, so antibodies were found most frequently in this group. But many children between the ages of six and nine also seem to have been infected with the virus. The seroprevalence in this group was 57 percent. Antibodies were detected in 61 percent of those examined between 10 and 18 years of age. People under the age of 18 are not yet eligible for vaccination in India.
“The second wave overwhelmed the system. We would have to vaccinate at least nine to ten million people a day and aggressively push back the virus,” the “Deutsche Welle” quotes the epidemiologist Giridhar Babu. “This wave was violent not because the virus became more deadly, but because it was more infectious and easier to transmit.” The number of infections recently fell in India, and measures were relaxed. But experts are very concerned about a third wave. Especially since the current study has also shown “that around 400 million people are still at risk if a third wave occurs,” said ICMR Director General Balram Bhargava, according to “CNN”.
“Millions dead, not hundreds of thousands”
Since the pandemic began, India has reported 31.2 million cases of infection, an infection rate of less than three percent, according to data from John Hopkins University. These numbers do not explain the data from the study at all. It indicates something that many experts have long criticized, a gap in corona reporting. The fact that so many cases went undetected is mainly attributed to the overburdened health system, the poor infrastructure and the associated low test rate. But the loophole affects not only cases of infection, but also deaths.
According to official information, the number of corona deaths in India is around 418,000, only the USA and Brazil reported more. But according to one of the Think Tank Center for Global Development, this number needs to be revised up by a few million. The experts estimate that excess mortality since the beginning of the pandemic could amount to as much as 4.7 million. For their analysis, the researchers extrapolated deaths from seven highly populated states, included regular household surveys on deaths, and evaluated further studies. Although the researchers admitted that they could not draw any conclusions about the cause of death, they said: “The true number of deaths is several million, not hundreds of thousands”. The corona pandemic in India is “the worst human tragedy since independence”.
