The last Business Expectations Survey (EEA) of February, published this Tuesday by the Statistics National Institute (INE), showed stability in the inflationary projections of Uruguayan businessmen, who maintained a median of the 8.6% in their expectations for this year and the 8% by 2024.
However, if one takes into account the half projections for next year, the figures worsened slightly compared to the January report. While last month, employers expected an average of 8.3% for 2024, in the current study they anticipate an average of 8.4%
Although the variation is minimal, it could be taken as a warning sign in the face of the gradual convergence that expectations had been showing towards the goal established by the government.
Although both business forecasts and current year-on-year inflation data are far from the target range –between 3 and 7%–, the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) commitment to a convergence driven by a monetary policy rate (TPM) high, which at the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) it froze at 11.5% until expectations lowered.
The most optimistic companies placed the average inflation for 2023 close to 5%, while the most pessimistic did so close to 12%. These same proportions remain almost unchanged for the year 2024 among agents of the national private sector.
Expectations about the variation in costs fell
On the other hand, the mean expected by employers for the operating cost variance is from a 9.2% in 2023, that is, 0.1 percentage points above the January report.
However, by 2024, that percentage stands at 8.9%that is, 0.1 percentage points below the previous study.
If the median is taken into account. the trend is seen more clearly: for 2023 they expect 9% and for 2024, 8.7%. A handful of optimistic companies believe that costs will fall or remain unchanged, while most are between 6% and 12% for both years, in which these costs are expected to be above the CPI.
Source: Ambito
