The price of the US currency is still far from the values expected by the market and the industry.
He dollarwhich closed stable on Thursday at 39,177 pesos according to the official price of the interbank Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), accumulate a depreciation of 2.23% so far this year and that keeps it far from the 40-peso range, the minimum acceptable floor for many sectors of the country’s economic activity.
Although the foreign currency accumulates a positive balance of 0.73% so far in March, the differences with the prices of a year ago show categorically the process of appreciation of the Uruguayan pesobased on the contractive policy of the Central Bank and its increase in interest rates.
A year ago, on March 9, 2022, the exchange rate was 42,543 pesos per dollar. The year-on-year variation for yesterday’s closing price was -7.91%.
How much should the dollar be and when was the last time it hit $40?
According to him Big Mac Indexthe indicator used by The Economist to calculate the value of the world’s currencies in reference to the value of the famous hamburger, the dollar in Uruguay it should be 50 pesos.
Taking more moderate projections as a reference, such as that of the Business Expectations Survey of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), the US currency should trade around the 42 pesos.
In recent months, the value closest to that ideal was 40 pesos, news that had aroused some expectation in the industry and the agro-export complex, but that dissipated in just two exchange days.
This occurred on December 27, when the BCU interbank dollar closed at 40,038 pesos after six weeks of moving away from that range. However, since then the price has continued to fall until it even pierced the floor of 38 pesos in mid-January, to then start a rebound from the second half of February.
So far in March, the dollar has accumulated an appreciation of 0.73%, insufficient even to reverse the loss in value of the first three months of the year.
Source: Ambito
