After a week of stress in the world markets and temporary relief at the local level with the rainfall that renewed drinking water reserves and improved some sectors of the agro-export complex, the government of Luis Lacalle Pou He faces several appointments of interest in the coming days.
Since the key decision of the Federal Reserve about his interest rate until the complicated discussion of the social security reform In the Chamber of Deputies, these are the five events that will mark the future of the economy and politics in the coming days:
The long-awaited meeting of the United States Federal Reserve
The United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will define, between Tuesday and Wednesday, whether to increase again the benchmark interest rate in its objective to control the inflationas has been the case for a year.
The Fed is facing a very glassy scenario marked by the collapse of several regional banks that spread fears of a financial crisis to the entire system.
If the rate increases, it runs the risk of severely affecting the level of activity, asset prices and deactivate incentives for investmentwhich could lead to the start of a recessive cycle.
On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve chooses a path of adjustment of a smaller pace and size, it faces the danger of having to live with a high inflation rate for longer than desired, which in the long term will also affect the level of inflation. of activity, the price of assets, the dollar valueand can also end in a recession.
Negotiations against the clock in Deputies for the pension reform
The government of Luis Lacalle Pou this week accelerates negotiations with its coalition partner, Town meetingto ensure that his star reform, that of social security, is voted on within the stipulated deadlines, that is, on the 31st of this month, something that seems improbable.
He National Partythe president’s force, called an extraordinary session for Wednesday the 29th, with the hope that the plenary session Deputies vote the initiative.
That gives a little more than a week to unblock a months-long conflict between the Executive and Cabildo Abierto over central points of the reform, such as the replacement formula and the age of minimum retirement. The bid has practically frozen the progress of the text in the Special Commissionwhich has been in session for a month.
The BCU attentive to a new bond tender
He Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) will tender, between today and Thursday, 8,300 million pesos in three placements of titles of public debt in nominal pesos issued by the financial entity.
Tomorrow he will auction one Note in Pension Units (UP) Series 3 for about 1,600 million pesos.
Will the price of the dollar finish consolidating?
The dollar closed Friday with a fall of 0.18% to 39,496 pesos, according to the official interbank price of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). On Thursday he had touched his maximum in the last two months upon reaching 39,679 pesos.
Despite the drop, the US currency accumulates a rise of 1.55% so far in March, remaining close to the expected 40 pesos, a value that has not been recorded since December 27, 2022.
The price so far this month has been showing a stability for the price of the dollar that has been operating within the range of 39 pesos for more than three weeks.
UPM 2 awaits authorization from the Environment
UPM still awaits authorization Ministry of Environment to put into operation its second pulp mill in the country, located in Pueblo Centenario and with a production capacity of 2 million tons.
The ministry and the authorities of the Finnish company will meet on Thursday and there will be a new evaluation of the Paso de los Toros plant.
The production in that plant will allow Uruguay double exports of cellulose, something that was seen as key to counteract the falls in the sales of agricultural goods as a consequence of the drought.
However, from the productive increase in Chili in this first quarter of the year for the modernization and expansion of the Arauco Plantadded to the imminent commissioning of UPM2, the price of the biopolymer is registering drops in the international market.
Source: Ambito
