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What does the dollar market, inflation and unemployment expect?

What does the dollar market, inflation and unemployment expect?

He Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) published this afternoon his Economic Expectations Survey in conjunction with his Inflation Expectations Survey. The objective of both relays is to monitor monthly the expectations of the Uruguayan market in relation to the main macroeconomic variables.

In regards to the inflationentrepreneurs and economic agents expect an average of 0.72% for the closing of March, with a minimum of 0.3% and a maximum of 1.1%. For the next semester, until August 2023, it is estimated that inflation will be in the order of 3.54%.

The inflationary expectation for the calendar year (until December) is 7.25%, with a minimum of 6.6% and a maximum of 7.8%. For the next 12 months (until February 2024), a figure of 7.16% is expected.

https://twitter.com/BancoCentral_Uy/status/1641532652694937611

Inflation projections for the coming years are 6.89% for 2024; 6.74% for the next 24 months (March 2024 to February 2025); and an average of 6.45% for the calendar year of 2025. Within five years, inflation is expected in the order of 5.92%, with a minimum of 4.2%, and a maximum of 7.5%.

For her part, the core inflation (Consumer Price Index excluding fruits and vegetables, and regulated prices) marks a figure of 7.07% for the next 12 months (March 2023 to February 2024) and 6.82% for the following 24 months (March 2024 to February 2025).

Entrepreneurs expect a dollar of $41.50 by the end of the year

Regarding the exchange rate, those consulted expect, on average, a closing in the price of the dollar of 39.15 pesos for the end of March (something unlikely because today it closed at 38.835 pesos); 40.35 pesos for August (next semester); and of 41.50 pesos for the end of the year.

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03-30-2023 20:12

In relation to the future, the survey showed that a dollar is expected at 41.96 pesos for February 2024 (next 12 months); of 43.78 pesos by the end of 2024; 44.45 pesos for the next 24 months (February 2025); and 46.62 pesos for December 2025.

Unemployment would be at 8.06% by the end of the year

The rate of employment It would be located, according to forecasts, in the order of 58%, 58.32%, and 58.60%, for 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively. On the other hand, the rate of unemployment expected is from 8.06% by 20237.85% for 2024 and 7.73% for 2025.

For the level of activity, a GDP variation (Gross domestic product) of 1.68% by 2023; 2.50% for the year 2024; 2.35% by 2025; and 2.42% within 5 years.

On the other hand, it was reported that the estimate of the consolidated fiscal result (in percentage of GDP) it will be 3.03% below in 20232.87% in 2024 and 2.89% in 2025.

The monetary policy rate would be placed in a 11.40% by April 202310.88% for August 2023, 10.14% for February 2024, 9.34% for February 2025 and 7.75% within the next 5 years.

Source: Ambito

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