The hours to know the future of the government coalition seem to be numbered. Tomorrow, Open Town Hall (CA), the force led by the retired military Guido Manini Rioswill define if they continue to form part of an alliance in which they feel, according to their referents, belittled.
The straw that broke the camel’s back, after the tense negotiation for the social security reform in which the president Luis Lacalle Pou lowered several flags to get the vote of the lobbyists, it was the request for the resignation of Irene MoreiraMinister of Housing and wife of Manini Ríos, for the direct award of a property to a CA militant.
“Maybe there are other things that they want to collect from Cabildo Abierto,” said the party leader and senator during the press conference last Friday in which he pressured Lacalle Pou to review the resignation request. The president ratified it and CA announced that on Monday it would evaluate the steps to follow.
Manini Ríos gave a preamble to what seems to be the end of the coalition: “Maybe the time has come” He responded to the query about whether a rupture would be considered.
An emboldened Open Cabildo and a government worn out internally
The departure of the uncomfortable partner of the coalition would leave the Executive in a weakened situation in the Parliament, with a more than tight majority for the last stretch of Lacalle Pou’s management, assuming that CA will not go directly to the opposition. In such a case, he would lose the majority.
Cabildo Abierto has 3 seats for senators and 11 for representatives after obtaining 11% of the votes in the 2019 general elections, its first electoral contest with Manini Ríos leading the ticket as a candidate for president.
His departure from the ruling party would leave the ruling alliance -partidos National, Colorado, Independent and from the people– with just one more seat than the opposition in the Senate (14 against 13 in the broad front) and only 2 more in Deputies (45 from the alliance, 42 from the front, one environmentalist). But if the lobbyists voted with the FA, the numbers for the ruling party would simply reverse and it would remain in the minority.
The last few weeks have revealed the political firepower of Manini Ríos and his party, who achieved two victories after taking hostage the approval of the social security reform, a law considered key by President Luis Lacalle Pou and the stone cornerstone of what will be the legacy of his management.
Cabildo Abierto not only achieved most of the changes required to the reform, to the point of affecting the very structure of the initiative such as modifications in the retirement calculation formula, but also imposed his right-wing agenda in Parliament.
The shared tenancy -a project that, according to experts, violates the rights of children- became law last week. while the house arrest for people over 65 years -which would allow more than 20 convicted of crimes against humanity to leave prison- was set as a priority in the Senate. This last situation could perhaps change with his departure from the coalition.
On the opposite sidewalk, on the other hand, the government would have to go through its last year and a half of management with obstacles in Parliament, in the midst of a context of premature electoral campaign in the country and economic indicators that show a deceleration from last year’s record levels.
The first big date would be the presentation of the Accountabilityin which the Executive is working and which serves to trace the budget agenda of the next year. In 2022, with a coalition still stable, the approval process for the law lasted more than 4 months.
The surrender, in which the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), would include several more reforms. The political tension could delay them and even bury them under an electoral climate that has already begun to arrive in Uruguay.
Source: Ambito
