Inflation would remain low during the first half

Inflation would remain low during the first half

The CPI would be close to 4% until May, when it would begin to rebound towards the ceiling of the target range, according to Exante forecasts.

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The inflation closed 2023 within the target range and stood at 5.11%, while 2024 is expected to begin with a downward trend, which would take the CPI around 4%, according to Exante forecasts.

The economist and partner of Exante, Florencia Carriquiry, He warned in dialogue with En Perspectiva that inflation “will tend to go down” and ventured that it could be below 4% between the months of March and May.

When analyzing this scenario, Carriquiry observed that “this would essentially reflect a significant reversal of inflationary dynamics in the fruits and vegetables, “which accumulated a price increase of 40% in the first 4 months of 2023, which we do not expect to be repeated in January-April of this year.”

The rise in inflation will arrive in the second half

From that floor, which the economist places between April and May, the inflation “it would tend to rise in the second part of the year and would be at levels around the ceiling of the range”, approaching 6% between August and December.

The increase will occur due to the tradable component from current levels, he indicated. Carriquiry, who said that today “they are extremely low” and compared that without additional drops in the exchange rate or falls in prices of food and other items, “the tradable inflation “It would tend to increase, although well below the double-digit levels of 2022.”

The expectations of economic agents continue not to align with those of the BCU

Meanwhile, the economics agents that consults the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) continue with expectations above what the organization expects, which predicted in December a inflation average of 6.10% for the next two years.

Meanwhile, the financial markets They predict that this figure will be 6.42% and the businessmen, whose measurement is carried out by the INE, is located at 7%, giving a general average of 6.5% for 2024 and 2025, despite the fact that the CPI has been within the target range for several months.

Source: Ambito

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