Businessmen expect inflation to remain within the target range for a year

Businessmen expect inflation to remain within the target range for a year

He private sector showed a reduction in inflation expectations on the horizon of monetary politics and they expect the CPI to close 2024 within the target range established by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) and remains that way for a whole year, according to the latest survey of the INE.

The Business Expectations Survey (EEE) of May, published today, showed that businessmen expect the inflation will be at 6% by the end of the year, a figure that was not modified with respect to the previous report.

At the same time, of the median responses from the survey INE It appears that the private sector predicts that this percentage will be maintained in the moving year closed in April 2025, which is equivalent to a drop of 30 basis points.

Meanwhile, businessmen hope that the CPI stands at 6.5% for the moving year ended in April 2026, which represents a reduction of 50 basis points compared to last month.

Meanwhile, the expected variation of the operating costs of companies was significantly reduced for the remainder of the year and, with a decrease of 60 basis points, it stood at 6.4%. Meanwhile, it remained at 7% for the next 12 months and fell 20 basis points, to 7%, for the year ending April 2026.


The level of inflation and the prospects of the BCU

In moments where inflation rose again and reached 4.1% year-on-year, still below the center of the target range, there are several analysts who anticipated that in the coming months there will be a upturn and it could be close to 6%.

In fact, since Economic Research Center (Cinve) anticipated that inflation will remain at the target of the BCU at least until mid-2025, with accumulated inflation of 5.3% this year and the possibility of it slightly exceeding the cap by the end of July of that year.

The monetary authority is more optimistic, which in its report “Evolution and price expectations in Uruguay” anticipated that inflation will be 5.6% in two years, in which Monetary Policy Horizon.

Source: Ambito

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