Analysts and specialists consulted by the Central Bank of Uruguay expect inflation to reach 5.50% this year and close to the 6% limit in the next two years.
The inflation expectations of economic agents remain within the target range, according to the most recent report of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), published this Friday, with the projection that the CPI will be 5.5% in 2024.
Even though the inflation The inflation rate rose again in May and has been within the target range for a year now. This performance was assessed in the Inflation Expectations Survey of the BCU, where economic agents maintained their forecasts and even moderated them by 13 basis points for the next 12 months, leaving them at 5.70% for that period.
As for 2025, analysts maintained the expectations that there will be inflation of 6%, at the ceiling of the target range, while the median of responses for 2026 placed the CPI at around 5.9%.
Thus, although the CPI grew by 0.4% and accelerated to 4.1% after four consecutive declines, the fact that the indicator has been below the level for a year weighed more on the responses of the agents consulted by the BCU. 6% ceiling established by the monetary authority.
Inflation is expected to accelerate in the third quarter
Although the government, businessmen and experts agree that inflation will remain around 6% in the Monetary Policy Horizon (HPM), a report by the Catholic University of Uruguay (UCU) warned about three factors that could push the CPI up.
The first reason is the year-on-year comparison, since the coming months will contrast with those of 2023, in which there were deflation, since June and July showed decreases of 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.
At the same time, the study spoke of a “imported inflation” from Argentina, where he Dolar blue grew in recent days and promoted the price gap which, without reaching 2023 levels, grew again.
Finally, the recent rise in dollar and an eventual correction of the exchange delay could affect. “Just as its decline contributes to lower inflation, its rise contributes to higher inflation,” they warned from the UCU.
Source: Ambito
