And he anticipated: “There is already talk that in 2025 we are going to export oil and you have the banks starting to lend. Personal mortgage loans are growing between 10 and 20%, which means “The capital market anticipates what is going to end up happening in the real economy.”
The coincidence in optimism and the stage plan
In turn, Guaia agreed that “there are many factors to be positive with this model, which is in stages” and differentiated: “The first stage is fiscal consolidation, attack towards inflation. “We are not accumulating reserves, because that will probably be from the second stage, for next year or after the elections.”
“There are many things that had to be fixed and few resources, so it is not something that can be done overnight. We are going to be reducing the amount of pesos and more dollars to get out of the stocks and until we have access to international credit we have to see how we get them,” he expressed.
Meanwhile, Ambrosetti presented “a very optimistic scenario,” indicating that “We went from a political and economic context where everything was more anti-market and there was no desire to pay the debt to one where there is a will and ability to pay.”
“The country’s macroeconomic accounts began to be put in order a little and that demonstrates the solidity of the State that can face its debts. On the other hand, the fact of wanting to pay improved; before there was talk of refinancing. So that is peace of mind that is brought to the market and we see it later in other variables such as country risk and the falling exchange rate,” he highlighted.
At the same time, Nobile focused on the data and reviewed that “bonds rose 60% in the year, the Merval rose close to 50%, the S&P in the United States rose 20%.” “We are in stage two of the government, with the focus on the bleach. “More than $12 billion entered new accounts and that reinvigorated the euphoria over assets,” he said, noting that “A third of the increase in assets occurred in September.”
The role of companies in the market
About the performance of Balanz, Castagna highlighted that “at a great moment in the capital market, all participants are taking advantage of it.” “What differentiates us from the rest is that we are the main debt underwriters in the Argentine market,” He stuck out his chest when pointing out that “this is one of the main functions of the market: to finance companies, which then use those dollars to make investments and provide jobs.”
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“Technology transformed and revolutionized business. We were already prepared before the pandemic and the pandemic accelerated everything,” he said and compared that pre-pandemic “With digital onboarding we opened 30, 40 or 50 accounts per day in the best of cases and today we are opening between 700 and 800 per day, which end up in flow that goes to the market and also 60% of that flow is self-managed online by clients.”
As to Max Capital, Guaia defined it as “a comprehensive financial services company, which has an ALyC, a fund manager and a fiduciary SGR.” “The idea is to put together a financial group trying to unite the capital market with companies,” he stated.
“We offer financing alternatives. Max Capital is the largest bond operator in the last year, making it a company that tries to advise at all levels, from companies to young people who are entering the capital market. First, starting through funds and the second through investments in technology,” he added.
Ambrosetti referred to Guardian Capital as “a financial advisory company focused on the local and international capital markets” and about its role, he stated: “We advise individuals on investment portfolios and companies on cash management or the search for financing.”
To that is added the leg of financial education. “We offer talks, give classes and training at the secondary and university levels, providing information to new generations about why it is a tool they should have and know what a client account is in addition to knowing what a virtual wallet is.
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Finally, Nobile maintained that IEB “has been characterized by constant expansion and today is a financial services company extended to technology and Real Estate” and warned: “The growth has not ended, we will surely put some effort into new businesses because our shareholders have a very optimistic commercial view.”
“The idea is also to democratize investments with our Real Estate fund that can be purchased through the app, with small amounts of money to access bricks that way,” he added.
Reflections on the stocks and the dollar
Regarding the economic situation, Castagna referred to the exchange rate and considered that “The government is the first interested in leaving, but it does not want to rush so as not to take risks, since he realized that he can control some very important variables such as the exchange rate.”
Regarding the dollar, he maintained that “there are different factors that make us think that it will continue at this level,” with the exception of some international shock, while highlighting that “through laundering, 13 billion dollars entered the financial system and are going through the market to companies to be able to invest.
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Guaia referred to “the inheritance of a very strong commercial debt” and considered that “if one tries to get out of the trap and has immediate demand for dollars, it could be catastrophic,” so he considered that “They did well in giving it an outlet with the Bopreales and giving liquidity and downward pressure to the Cash with Liqui on the supply side with the Blend,” while he highlighted that “laundering generates flows of dollars at a time that seasonally was expected to not be good due to the liquidation of agriculture.”
Regarding the stocks, he considered that “it is maintained because there are risks of removing it if you do not have the resources to face a possible strong demand”, so he indicated that the government “has to ensure that there are many fewer pesos to demand more dollars.”
In turn, Ambrosetti agreed that “There is not much reason to expect a strong jump in the dollar,” as on previous occasions. “We see that clients are not so desperate to dollarize those pesos they receive,” he said and pointed out that “today, even with inflation going down, there are quite attractive rate instruments in pesos,” he highlighted.
Regarding the stocks, he stated that the government monitors the devaluation and the inflation. “When they are at 2%, it would be easier to lift it,” he analyzed and clarified that more important than when is how: “Today we do not imagine that we are going to freely buy dollars from the Central Bank from Home Banking, but rather that the restrictions and regulations that today prevent the free marketing of the MEP and the CCL, such as parking and daily amounts available, will be lifted.” .
Nobile considered that “good inflation data will favor the carry trade while waiting for rates to improve and to be able to extend deadlines in the tender. I think the rally is going to extend to sovereign bonds, trying to find that floor of 1,100 basis points of country risk.”
“Both Milei and Caputo have spoken about the fact that the stocks will be lifted when some conditions are met, among them when the monetary base coincides with the expanded monetary base, the LEFI are eliminated and everything is absorbed by the demand for money and when Inflation reached 2.5%. “We are not far away and some think it would be possible to do it in the summer or after the elections,” advance.
Tips for building investment portfolios
When putting together an investment portfolio, Nobile stated that “a conservative portfolio would indicate having fixed income, both in the peso part and low volatility such as the dollar part, either through instruments directly or in the form of funds and incorporating to a lesser extent sovereign bonds”.
A riskier portfolio would include a higher weighting of the dollar portion of sovereign bonds and surely a portion of Merval Argentina, “That with a country risk that can pierce 1,100 points with the stocks, it should perform very well according to the future of investments in Argentina on the energy and banking side.”
In parallel, Ambrosetti proposed for a conservative investor “a 100% fixed income portfolio where he has Negotiable Obligations from top-line companies with returns that can range from 5 to 8%, such as Vista, Pampa and the energy sector that usually have good coupons”:
“For a more moderate to aggressive profile, we would put other proportions and assets. Always fixed income with 80%, not all ON but sovereign bonds and 20% go to variable income: 10% could be allocated to S&P and the other 10% could go to Argentine stocks following this evolution of the Merval.”
At the same time, Guaia indicated that in the conservative mode “they cannot miss American Treasury debt bonds, if it is put together in dollars abroad or from here, since at 4% in the United States it is something that must be taken advantage of, with a portfolio that has a weighting of close to 40% and I would go back with Argentine corporate debt, “More than anything, the energy sector that issues in the long term, at good rates and with super solid balance sheets.”
“For a more risky investor, you always have to have some stocks at least for the long term, I would always take advantage of the fixed income part of the United States and invest S&P and on the Argentine side it would take advantage of sovereign debt that has a long history,” he added.
Finally, Castagna pointed out: “The conservative Argentine client likes fixed income, bonds, collecting coupons and when credited they are happy when they see it in their client account and in many cases they take them.” We don’t like to improvise too much, part of it in Treasury bonds, we also follow up on many Latin American companies and we have instruments to help get a little more rate and in Argentina we are the main underwriters in ON. You have Arcor, Central Puerto, Balanz”.
“For the slightly more risky profile I would add some stocks and sovereign debt, mainly those who have a positive view of Argentina and agree that Argentina is doing things well and is going to consolidate this change in model,” he revealed, highlighting elements like him Bopreal, the GD41 and long-term securities such as those of YPF, TGS and Pampa Energía.
Source: Ambito
