The economist Federico Glustein pointed out that “to the extent that the announcement is feasible and credible for the market, stability will be given to the parallel dollars.” And he analyzed: “In itself, the minister lowered the price of the power of the parallel market, insinuating the low volume and representation that she has compared to the official one. However, what he said will provide stability are positive real interest rates, the recovery of confidence in instruments in pesos and continuing with the agreement with the IMF, in addition to trying to stick to what was budgeted, that is, trying reduce spending and emissions. If all this combo occurs under these conditions, it is most likely that the parallels will stabilize, even downwards, but it will depend on the expectations that the markets and agents have about the short-term scenario and the economic outlook. In that sense, the relativization of the exchange rate and reserves may not be the best indication.”
Claudio Caprarulo, director of Analytica, agreed with the analysis. “The press conference was positive, the axis of the measures is set on giving signs of the sustainability of the debt in pesos through greater coordination within the public sector and reduction of the fiscal deficit. That may bring some calm to the market, but the most important thing is still missing: its implementation. At this point, after many marches and countermarches, seeing is believing, ”he said.
For his part, Alejandro Giacoia, an economist at Econviews, considered: “What was seen today in the parallel dollars responds to the fact that the minister showed some interest in correcting the deficit or at least in not enlarging it, which is no small thing seeing the spending dynamics this year. That’s a good thing that happens. In any case, I believe that the announcements were not forceful to the extent necessary to think about stability going forward. For this, we will have to see the facts.”
In this sense, a key moment of the conference was when the minister flatly denied the non-compliance by the Government with its obligations in pesos, and mentioned the offer of new instruments that allow safeguarding the movements of the exchange rate. Since the prices of the parallel dollars woke up when in early June the sustainability of the debt in pesos was questioned by investors.
On this point, Glustein mentioned that he must give volume and support to the existing instruments that are on the floor due to lack of confidence. “Once relative peace of mind is obtained, it is likely that new tools can be generated.”
Source: Ambito
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