The porter bag falls this Monday, March 20, after operating in positive territory at the beginning of the day, amid growing doubts about the soundness of the global banking system after the acquisition of Credit Suisse bank by UBS Group and local issues. In this context, the ADRs operate unevenly and the country risk advances to 2,415 points, its highest level since November 24, 2022.
At a turbulent time for financial markets, sovereign bonds in dollars operate with falls due to greater risk aversion of up to 2.3% thanks to Bonar 2041, followed by Global 2035 (-2.2%) and Global 2029 (-1.4%). The only rise of the day in Global 2046 to 1.4% stands out. Thus, the country risk scales 27 units or 1.3% to 2,415 points, its highest value in 4 months.
“The inflation data for February marked a change in expectations that favored the Dual (bonds)“, said the StoneX brokerage, and pointed out that “the intentions of a gradual and moderate decrease in inflation of the economic team are history, with monthly inflation that is very difficult to break the floor of 5% per month during 2023 and that for March in particular would be above 7%.
“The global outlook worsened. High inflation is now compounded by the instability of the American financial system and the threat of a new global financial crisis”said Martin Polo of clearing and settlement agent Cohen.
S&P Merval and ADRs
At the local level, the S&P Merval which managed to rise, reversed the trend like its peers in the region and fell 0.33% to 221,015.56 points. For their part, Argentine papers listed on Wall Street operate with the majority of falls of up to 3.2% led by Corporación América, followed by Central Puerto (-2.5%), Mercado Libre (-1.8%). The notable increases are those of Despegar (3.7%), Ternium (1.6%) and Cresud (1.6%).
This Monday, the Central Bank reported that the Andean Development Corporation (CAF) completed the disbursement of US$ 285.4 million of a credit granted to Argentina. The disbursed amount becomes “integrated into the international reserves of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic,” the monetary authority specified in a press release released today amid concerns about the reserves.
On Wednesday the Treasury will hold a tender for bonds to cover maturities, which are mostly in private hands, commented analysts.
“We believe that the Government needs a ‘good result’, and therefore, it is likely that it will take advantage of the margin to place in the short term and obtain a positive result“said Portfolio Personal Inversiones.
“Thus, we think that it ‘benefits’ from the new acceleration of inflation to seek demand from the private sector through short ‘Lecer’ (letters), “he estimated.
At the international level, “Attention will be focused on two fundamental points. On the one hand, the continuation of the financial crisis and on the other hand, the decision of the Fed (US Federal Reserve) on Wednesday, March 22” regarding its interest rate policy, said Portfolio Personal Inversiones. Analysts are considering the possibility that the Fed could pause raising interest rates this week.
Source: Ambito
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