The reports of international banks indicate what are the projections of the official exchange rate towards the end of 2023.
A survey of the reports from major banks as Wells Fargo, BBVA, Capital Economics, JP Morgan Chase or Morgan Stanleyindicates that for these entities, in the last quarter of the year, the wholesale dollar will trade above $380.
The exchange rate tension moved away from its peak moment but it still has not ceased and, within this framework, from the Ministry of Economy in the last few weeks they released different measures to contain it, among them, intervention in the exchange market, more restrictions on it and a differential exchange rate to attract more dollars.
How could the price of the dollar advance in the coming months?
This Friday May 5th the wholesale dollar operates at $226.20. In this sense, to look for indications of how it will progress, one can appeal to the Budget Law 2023in which the Argentine government stated that, for December of this year, the official wholesale dollar should be at a value of $269.90which would imply an increase of 52.5% in relation to the closing value of 2022 ($177).
On the other hand, the latest Survey of Market Expectations (REM) of the Central Bank (BCRA) indicated that private economists expect the official dollar to
On the other hand, however, there are also for most private economists these estimates will fall short. As reflected in the last Survey of Market Expectations (REM) of the BCRA, the economists consulted expect that the official dollar close the year in $346.26.
What do the banks expect?
The reports from the banks give yet another indication of what the expectations are in relation to the dollar for the coming months. In this sense, a survey of the reports of each bank that Bloomberg News collects, and that it publishes in its Terminal, indicates that entities such as Wells Fargo, BBVA, Capital Economics, JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley they expect an even bigger jump towards the end of the year.
According to the survey of the bank reports, some expect the official wholesale dollar to trade above the $380 in it last quarter of the year. He average of banks points to a value of $369.40 towards the end of the year.
Although, other banks like Standard Chantered and MUFF project, for the same period, a exchange rate at $300 and $315 respectively.
Source: Ambito
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