“Uncertain panorama”, “uncertainty”, “open scenario”, are some of the most repeated expressions by economic analysts by describing the current moment that the United States and the rest of the world are going through. From the arrival of Donald Trump to power, the implementation of tariffs – in that symbolic “liberation day” – marked a turn in commercial policy which continues to generate turbulence. Although a new negotiation window was opened, investors already discount that the US economy is heading towards a recession and a key question arises: How is Argentina and emerging in this scenario comfort?
Within the framework of the Expoefi, in the “View local and international” panel, moderated by Estefanía Pozzo (Director of Buenos Aires Herald), referents of PPI (Pedro Siaba Serrate), Balanz (Pilar Tavella), Capital Markets (Mateo Hermida), Iol (Maximiliano Donzelli) and Inviu (Diego Martínez Burzaco) talked about a “turn” in global investment priorities, especially for US investors. Although Donald Trump’s conciliatory message managed to partially contain uncertainty, it is not enough to Dissipate the fears of a recession and stagflation, A risk that not only is among the main forecasts of large investment banks but also assigned a probability value of more than 30%.
The tariffs or tariffs promoted by the Trump administration aggravated a process of deceleration of the US economy. “The markets are correcting beyond the rates. The US has already come with a growth problem before the rates. The announcement of rates aggravated the situation. All investment banks speak of 40% of economic recession,” said Mateo Hermida, of Markets Capital.
USA: inflation, rates and investments
In this context, Inflation occupies a leading role. According to Hermida, despite the previous efforts of the Federal Reserve for channeling expectations, in recent weeks there was a deterioration in the indicators, which explains the reluctance of the president of the agency, Jerome Powell, to start a rate of rates. The market, however, already discounts up Four cuts before January 2026in the midst of the doubts Trump raised about Powell’s performance.
For those who invest in the US, Analysts recommended to turn to corporate bonds that are around 6% and 8% performance, and extend duration of the bonds to block rate for a longer period of time. In this environment, American variable income is the least benefited.
Another point no less, indicated by Heredia, is linked to value. “The market rose a lot and the profits do not accompany. We had a correction of up to 21%. From the point of view of value We do not have an important support to say that the correction will stop “, He warned. Thus, the preference for US assets begins to be diluted, not only for valuation reasons, but also for the growing volatility against the few certainties provided by a “new Trump.” Instead, Europe and emerging markets gain attractive.
With a “price/earnings” ratio, the region offers diversification opportunities. For the most aggressive profiles, panel analysts pointed out emerging such as India, Brazil and even Argentina that are outlined as Alternatives with high potential. “Possible emerging bonds and actions because expected flows and returns can be more attractive to other developed markets. Emerging and European markets better value,” they said from INVIU. Among the recommendations raised by Burzaco he mentioned in the case of Brazil, Bradesco and ETF EWZ.
It is important to remember that from the local market, also ETFs and corporate bonds can be accessed. While these options are limited for qualified investors, a more accessible alternative can be through the ETF – Ishares Core Msci Europe ETF- which is composed of high, medium and low capitalization companies.
What is the positioning of Argentina in this context: does the interest of the foreign investor grow?
Before this panorama where the region was the least affected by the rates, Argentina seems to be the favorite for foreign investors But with a weight of history, which is still present. While Argentina can be a “jewel” in the face of key changes in the macroeconomy carried out by the current government, for now there is expectation but not concrete operations.
From the perspective of Balanz, the panorama is constructive. Pilar Tavella pointed out that the debut of the new scheme was a “success” in terms of the official dollar price and the limited “pass troght”. “For us, inflation is going to park about 3%,” he anticipated. However, he spoke of a “idiosyncratic” risk that has to do with the possibility of accumulating reserves, where Argentina must accumulate until the end of July about US $ 5,000 million. “At some point the BCRA should leave between bands to accumulate reservations,” said Tavella, as the weakest leg of the current economic program.
However, in a complex global scenario, all analysts agreed that Argentina has a chance vein by continuing to lower country risk and be able to go to international markets in better conditions. However, They distrust that before the elections.
Source: Ambito
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