In this context, Brazil also plays a key role. Although the real shows a recovery And exchange instability seems to have been left behind, The monitoring of its economy is crucial for Argentine foreign trade. Its performance will be decisive in the evolution of the Commercial balance during the year.
To analyze the possible consequences, it is fundamental Evaluate the weight of Brazil and the USA In the commercial exchange of Argentina. According to INDEC, Brazil is the main destination of Argentine exports, representing 18% of the total, While the US occupies third place with a 8.7%participation. Second is Chile, another key partner of the region.
What role does the US occupy in the Argentine economy
The United States remains the main foreign investor in Argentina, with a capital of US $ 30,000 million, which represents more than 18% of the total, according to Abeceb consultancy. These investments are mainly concentrated in the extraction of oil and natural gas (U $ S9.278 million, equivalent to 31% of the total), the manufacturing industry (US $ 6,327 million), telecommunications services (US $ 3,229 million) and automotive trade (US $ 2,515 millions).
The strong link between the two countries is reflected in the development of Vaca Muerta, where the American drilling technology (“fracking”) was key to optimizing hydrocarbons production.
In commercial terms, Bilateral exchange is historically significantwith an annual average of US $1,000 million in the last decade. During 2024, the exchange added $ 12,680 million, with Argentine exports for US $ 6,454 million and imports for US $ 6,226 million, which resulted in a commercial surplus of US $ 228 million dollars, breaking with 18 consecutive years of deficit. This change was due to 16% increase in exports and a 30% drop in imports, driven by the slowdown in local economic activity.
What role Brazil occupies in the Argentine economy
Brazil was consolidated as Argentina’s main trading partner in 2024. It is the main destination of exports and also positioned itself as the largest supplier in the country.
Among the main products that Argentina exports to Brazil, the propane and liquefied butane, polymers of ethylene, piston engines and its parts, cheeses and milk, as well as alcohols, phenols and its derivatives are highlighted. These goods are fundamental for various industries, such as energy, petrochemical, automotive, pharmaceutical and plastics, which depend largely on this commercial exchange.
The prospects of foreign trade for 2025
Fernando Landa, President of the Wax (Chamber of Exporters of the Argentine Republic) and co -chair of the B20 Brasil 2024 B20) investment recalled with Scope that Argentina has an investment agreement with the US (TIFA) that has been in force since 2016. “Since Cera we have long proposed to advance with harmonization agreements and good regulatory practices and on the other hand, trade facilitation. This is a The way not only possible, but constructive in the relationship. “
On the other hand, it was stressed that, Beyond the free trade agreement, there are still pending issues with the US that must be resolved. Among them, the reactivation of the generalized preferences system (SGP), the investigations for alleged dumping against Argentine products and the completion of the formal process to enable the income of sweet citrus.
It was also pointed out that It is difficult to foresee an immediate advance in the negotiation of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Argentina and the US.
Following the US panorama, Gastón Méndez Crespi, director of the UADE International Trade Carrera, added that Trump’s tariff measures will have a “limited” impact on Argentina. But in the case of Brazil, the impact is greater.
The UADE analyst warned that, If the devaluation of the Brazilian real is maintained over time, the scheme of “Crawling Peg” at 1% monthly in Argentina could affect its competitiveness. In addition, he pointed out the impact of dollar costs within this dynamic: “We are expensive in dollars and that makes exporters not competitive,” he warned.
In addition, criticized the current economic model, stating that it does not encourage production with added value, It privileges a quick search for dollars through sectors such as mining, gas and oil, which depend on low -value -value commodities. “We are prioritizing the export of these products at the expense of industrial exports, which affects most exporters, except those that market primary products,” he said.
For its part, Elisabet Bacigalupo, Senior Economist from Abeceb, He explained in dialogue with scope the role of the exchange rate in exports. “The ‘Crawling Peg’, in a context where inflation remains above 2% monthly, undoubtedly press to expand it. However, it is not such a linear effect “he said.
According to Abeceb, The Brazilian real could remain weakened during the rest of the year due to the persistent doubts in fiscal matters and the growing international uncertainty. While the recent rise in the SELLIC rate and some positive signals in the fiscal and monetary field -such as the commitment to the independence of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) -they continued to calm the exchange tensions, risk factors still persist.
Among them, the threats of an escalation in commercial tensions between the US, Mexico and China, which could lead to higher rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed), a stronger dollar and a greater depreciation of the currencies Emerging, including the Brazilian real. This is a key factor to monitor, since it could exert additional pressure on competitiveness, expand the trade deficit with Brazil and, consequentlyreduce the added commercial surplus, estimated at $ 13,000 million by 2025.
Source: Ambito
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