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Filzmaier on Neos: “Meinl-Reisinger is a stronger motive than Strolz”

With Neos boss Beate Meinl-Reisinger, ORF started the “Summer Talks” series on Monday evening. An occasion for OÖNachrichten to take stock of the smallest opposition party together with the political scientist Peter Filzmaier.

Personnel question: After replacing Matthias Strolz at the top of the party in mid-2018, the Neos and Meinl-Reisinger (43) achieved 8.1 percent (plus 2.8) in the 2019 National Council election. In the meantime, for Neos sympathizers, it has become “even a stronger electoral motive than Strolz before that”, attests Filzmaier. In the opposition comparison, she has better trust values ​​than Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SP) and Herbert Kickl (FP).

The fact that the trend has recently been falling could be a consequence of the pink attack on Chancellor Sebastian Kurz (VP) in the Ibiza Committee. Because for Neos voters “the government motive is twice as strong as the control motive” and turquoise would be the most obvious partner, says the political scientist.

Subject occupation: For a year and a half, the pandemic has been the overlying meta-topic. Initially, the Neos were able to make a name for themselves with calls for economic aid and warnings about school closings. Now that there is a lot going in the direction of personal responsibility, there is little room for opposing positions for a liberal party.

In the second meta-topic environment, the Greens are more strongly positioned. The Neos therefore drum all the more education as their core topic. Also because the SPÖ, as its main competitor, has not been addressing educational issues as publicly as it has in the past.

Elective perspective: Meinl-Reisinger has given 15 percent as the target for the next NR election – a target value in order to be prepared for two-person constellations. It remains to be seen whether this can be achieved with traditionally liberal approaches, with a correspondingly small target group in Austria. A broadening in every respect should be necessary. Most recently, “40 percent of all Neos voters came from Vienna and the adjacent Lower Austrian bacon belt” (Filzmaier).

Possible partners: The logical and only realistic two-way variant would be the one with the ÖVP. Also in terms of content. With Kurz, who is not an advocate of the chamber system, Filzmaier sees hardly any differences in the pink and turquoise economic plans. This also applies to education and social issues.

The red and pink Vienna is not a realistic model for the federal government due to the lack of a majority. The second option remains the three-way variant SPÖ-Greens-Neos, despite considerable differences in content.

Filzmaier would exclude the FPÖ with Herbert Kickl as a possible partner. That would be “like an endurance test with a risk of division for the SPÖ in a weakened form”. Which, however, does not rule out individual alliances.

Second attempt in Upper Austria

the State election on September 26th in Upper Austria is the biggest test for the parties this year. This is especially true for the Neos. Because the state above the Enns is only one of three federal states (besides Carinthia and Burgenland) in which it is not represented in the state parliament. In 2015, with 3.5 percent, they just failed the four percent hurdle. The previous top result from the pink point of view was in 2019 in Vorarlberg with 8.5 percent. In Vienna last year, 7.5 percent was enough for Christoph Wiederkehr to become Vice Mayor. The 29-year-old wants to participate in the Upper Austrian election campaign Felix Eypeltauer position the Neos as the “only” independent opposition force. Pollsters predict a close race for the second attempt at the state parliament.

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