Trump or Biden: Which candidate is currently ahead among voters

Donald Trump is now leading in all the swing states, the most contested states (Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin). This was to be expected after Joe Biden’s unspeakable performances and his team’s unspeakable attempts to conceal his fragile health.

Suddenly, however, other states that were considered safe for Democrats are also being contested: New Hampshire and Minnesota, for example, where the Republicans last won in 1972, 52 years ago. The independent Cook Political Report, always worth reading, rates the Democrats in both states only as “slightly favored.” Until now, they were unchallenged in the lead there.

This is relevant for two reasons. First, it shows that the race is slipping away from Biden, more than ever before. Second, and more importantly, it is a red flag for many senators and representatives who are also up for election in November. If the presidential candidate does poorly, he will drag down the other candidates as well.

So if Biden now also fights for survival in the supposed strongholds of Minnesota and New Hampshire, Democratic lawmakers everywhere will be very worried and could argue for Biden’s exit – as more than a dozen lawmakers and supporters have already done.

If the Democrats not only lose the White House, but also the Senate and the House of Representatives again, Trump would have free rein. Then he could basically do whatever he wants. A horror scenario for the Democratic Party and its supporters.

It is therefore worth studying the numbers closely these days, including the polls from individual states and even individual constituencies. If more states are at risk, one can assume that the intra-party rebellion against Biden will experience a new dynamic. Democrats are loyal, but not on a “suicide mission,” as one politician from Georgia put it.