The state elections in Saxony and Thuringia on September 1st will be about the states’ ability to govern and whether the AfD will have the power to shape things. That is the mood.
The AfD could still become the strongest party in Saxony and Thuringia, but the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) coalition is likely to play the decisive role in forming a government. And people’s biggest concerns include the war in Ukraine, inflation and the federal government’s policies. These are some of the key findings of a new survey by the opinion research institute forsa on behalf of star and RTL. The results in detail:
Sunday question
The AfD has 30 percent in both states. In Saxony, however, the CDU can hold on to first place. The current Kenya coalition of the Union with the SPD and the Greens would have a majority of seats, as would an alliance of the CDU and BSW. In Thuringia, the Wagenknecht party could come in second ahead of the CDU – and thus lay claim to the chairmanship of a joint government. However, the SPD would also be needed in a CDU-BSW coalition to gain a majority of seats. Other majority alliances would be mathematically possible with the participation of the AfD, but are ruled out by the other parties. In addition, the CDU does not want to form a coalition with the Left Party.
Prime Minister’s preference
The prime ministers of Saxony and Thuringia are going into the state elections on September 1st with a clear incumbency bonus. In a – hypothetical – direct vote on the head of government, 50 percent of eligible voters in Saxony would vote for CDU head of government Michael Kretschmer. AfD state leader Jörg Urban follows in second place. Given the party’s ratings, the approval rating for BSW’s top candidate Sabine Zimmermann is noticeably low.
In Thuringia, Left Party Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow is clearly ahead of his challengers from the AfD and CDU with 42 percent of the vote. However, as the 13 percent for Ramelow’s state party shows, he can only do so much to counter the devastating national trend. CDU top candidate Mario Voigt is not a driving force for his state party with an approval rating of 10 percent.
16 percent of Thuringians would vote for AfD state leader Björn Höcke as prime minister in a direct election. Like Voigt, he is not succeeding in reaching a broader electorate. Höcke is most successful among men, workers and people who are dissatisfied with Ramelow’s government.
Citizens’ concerns
As in other state elections and even local elections, the parties are strongly addressing federal political issues. This is certainly met with a response. People in Saxony are worried about increasing violence, the war in Ukraine and immigration. And two thirds of people reject the federal government’s policies.
The mood is similar in Thuringia, where concern about an escalation of the war in Ukraine dominates. Opposition to the traffic light coalition is almost as high.
Support for Ukraine
An absolute majority of respondents in Thuringia and Saxony are in strong agreement that Germany should supply fewer weapons to Ukraine. Around a quarter are in favor of maintaining military aid at the current level. Only a small minority wants to provide more support to the attacked country.
Major problems and political priorities
When people are asked about the biggest problem in their respective country, immigration is mentioned most frequently. Interestingly, in Saxony, a good third are worried about the threat posed by right-wing extremism. In Thuringia, the figure is significantly lower. Otherwise, classic issues such as education, the economic situation and inflation dominate. At the very bottom: climate policy.
Because the topic of migration is of interest to so many people, the question was also asked what should be the priority: better integration or a stop to immigration? With the exception of the AfD, supporters of all parties in Saxony place greater value on integration. However, many BSW and CDU voters are also in favor of stopping immigration in general.
The results in Thuringia are similar. However, here a majority of BSW voters are in favor of stopping immigration.
Data basis:
The data was collected online by the market and opinion research institute forsa for stern and RTL Deutschland between August 7 and 14, 2024 in the population-representative Forsa Omninet panel. Data basis: 1041 respondents in Saxony; 1011 respondents in Thuringia. Statistical error tolerance: +/- 3 percentage points
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
