Brandenburg’s head of government can use his incumbency bonus in the state elections. Whether his party can benefit from this is not yet clear, as a new survey shows.
A good week before the state election in Brandenburg, the AfD is, according to a new survey, well ahead of the SPD with 26 percent, with 29 percent. This is the result of a ZDF Politbarometer Extra for the election on September 22nd. In the ARD Deutschlandtrend published on Thursday, the lead was narrower. There, the Social Democrats had caught up and were, with 26 percent, just behind the AfD with 27 percent.
The Brandenburg Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies the AfD regional association as a suspected case of right-wing extremism. A new state parliament will be elected in Brandenburg on September 22nd. For the representative ZDF survey, the research group Wahlen surveyed 1,060 eligible voters in Brandenburg from September 10th to 12th.
According to the ZDF survey, the CDU came in third place with 15 percent. It is currently a coalition partner with the SPD and the Greens in the state. The Sahra Wagenknecht coalition is just behind with 14 percent. The Greens, with 5 percent, have to worry about being re-elected to the state parliament. BVB/Free Voters and the Left Party each achieved 3 percent. 73 percent of those surveyed said that they had already made up their minds about voting. 27 percent are still unsure.
Woidke clearly beats competitors
When asked who Brandenburgers would like to see as prime minister, incumbent Dietmar Woidke of the SPD leaves the competition far behind. 55 percent would prefer him to other top candidates. 7 percent are in favor of Hans-Christoph Berndt of the AfD, 11 percent for Jan Redmann (CDU) and only 1 percent for Robert Crumbach (BSW).
According to 48 percent of respondents, the SPD should also lead the next state government, 21 percent favor the CDU, 15 percent the AfD, 8 percent the BSW. The SPD has governed in Brandenburg since 1990 with changing partners, and since 2019 with the CDU and the Greens. Woidke has announced that he wants to retire from state politics if the SPD does not come out on top in the election.
In the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony on September 1, the AfD received more than 30 percent of the vote. In Thuringia, the AfD became the strongest force.
In general, election polls are always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, polls only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.
Source: Stern
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