Diplomacy: “Pearl of the Orient” to kick off: Scholz visits Central Asia

Oil and gas deliveries, controlling migration and sanctions against Russia: these are just some of the topics that will be discussed on Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s first trip to the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. The SPD politician will take off early in the morning on his government plane to Uzbekistan to conclude several agreements there, including one on migration with the country bordering Afghanistan.

On Monday, he will travel to Kazakhstan, the largest and economically strongest country in Central Asia, for two days. A summit meeting is planned there with all five states in the region between Russia and China, which also include Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. Scholz wants to expand relations with these countries and agreed a strategic partnership with them in Berlin a year ago, focusing on the economy, energy, climate and environment. This partnership is now to be brought to life.

As big as the EU – but only 80 million inhabitants

The five Central Asian states have a total population of almost 80 million, which is slightly less than Germany. However, their area is eleven times larger than Germany and corresponds roughly to the area of ​​the entire European Union with its 27 member states. For a long time, from a German perspective, the region was in the shadow of the two superpowers China and Russia, on which the German economy focused its interest.

The Russian attack on Ukraine has changed that. Russia has long been Germany’s most important energy supplier. And economic dependence on China is now also to be reduced, mainly because of the bad experiences with Russia. The German government therefore wants to deepen existing partnerships with less economically strong countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia and find new partners.

Resource wealth and human rights violations

The raw material deposits in the Central Asian states are of particular interest to Germany. Kazakhstan, as the region’s strongest economy, already supplies the refinery in Schwedt, Brandenburg, with oil and compensates for the cut in Russian supplies. The German government is also interested in the region’s gas deposits. Kazakhstan also has uranium, iron ore, zinc, copper and gold and is considered a potential partner for the production of hydrogen obtained from renewable energies.

However, the authoritarian states in the region are internationally criticized for human rights violations. Gas-rich Turkmenistan, for example, is considered an isolated dictatorship similar to North Korea. The human rights organization Human Rights Watch called on Scholz before the trip to openly address grievances. “The German government cannot pretend that closer relations with Central Asia are possible without a significant improvement in the human rights situation in the region,” said regional director Hugh Williamson.

Scholz wants to “appropriately address” the circumvention of sanctions

For the Central Asian states, intensifying relations with the West is a balancing act. On the one hand, they are closely intertwined with Russia economically. On the other hand, they stress that they support the Western states’ sanctions regime against Russia. However, it is questionable how serious Kazakhstan, for example, is about this.

Exports from there to Russia have increased, in some cases significantly, since the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. This fuels the suspicion that companies from Western countries are deliberately trying to circumvent economic sanctions against Russia by going via these countries. Kazakhstan has a 7,000-kilometer-long border with Russia – the longest land border in the world. Sources close to the Chancellor say that Scholz is prepared to “appropriately address” the circumvention of sanctions during his trip.

Mosque visit in Samarkand to kick off

The first stop is also a cultural highlight: in the afternoon, the Chancellor will arrive in the more than 2,500-year-old Uzbek oasis city of Samarkand on the Silk Road, which is also called the “Pearl of the Orient.” His first items on the program are a walk through the Registan, one of the most magnificent squares in Asia, and a visit to the 17th-century Tilla Kori Mosque.

Scholz wants to conclude several agreements with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, including the migration agreement, which is intended to facilitate the immigration of Uzbek skilled workers to Germany and the repatriation of Uzbeks who are required to leave the country to their homeland. Uzbekistan is also considered one of the countries that could help with the deportation of criminals to Afghanistan. However, it is still unclear “whether and within what time frame this will materialize in practice,” according to government circles.

Putin was also recently in Uzbekistan

The country, with a population of around 36 million, has been opening up to the West for years. Under President Mirziyoyev, it has implemented a number of liberal reforms, privatized parts of its state economy and thus attracted investors. Economic growth of over five percent is expected this year alone – thanks in part to the close trade relations with China and Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Uzbekistan in May and announced investments that Scholz can hardly keep up with: He promised help for the expansion of a gas pipeline and the construction of several hydroelectric and nuclear power plants.