Middle East: After pager attacks: Waiting for Hezbollah’s reaction

After an apparently coordinated attack on Hezbollah’s technical equipment that left at least 32 dead and more than 3,000 injured, there are fears of a major attack by the Lebanese militia on Israel. After the explosions of hundreds of pagers and radios, which military and intelligence experts suspect were carried out by Israel, Hezbollah could once again attack targets in the enemy neighboring country.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah wanted to give a speech in the evening. The militia confirmed 32 deaths in its own ranks since the pager explosions on Tuesday, but did not disclose the cause of death. Israel has not yet commented on the explosions in the neighboring country.

Hezbollah has been attacking targets in Israel since the Gaza war began almost a year ago, claiming it is out of solidarity with the Islamist Hamas. It will not stop the attacks until a ceasefire is reached between Hamas and Israel. The almost daily shelling has developed into a low-level war. Around 600 people have been killed in Lebanon, most of them Hezbollah members.

Hezbollah’s “moderate retaliation” against Israel

If Hezbollah launches a major attack on Israel, the militia’s senior leadership would opt for “moderate retaliation,” said David Wood, Lebanon expert at Crisis Group. “This stance is consistent with Hezbollah’s proven approach: maintaining pressure on Israel until a ceasefire in Gaza is reached, while minimizing the risks of a full-scale war in Lebanon.”

When it comes to choosing its response, Hezbollah – the strongest non-state actor in the region with an estimated 150,000 rockets – is once again faced with a dilemma. It wants to maintain the principle of deterrence against its arch-enemy Israel, but is not capable of an attack as complex as exploding pagers and radios. It could therefore take weeks before it launches what it considers to be an appropriate attack on Israel. It did not respond militarily to the killing of its military commander Fuad Shukr until about a month later.

Hezbollah (“Party of God”), founded in the 1980s, has over 100,000 members according to its general secretary Nasrallah. Other estimates, however, put the number at half that. It has great political and economic influence. However, Hezbollah wants to avoid another major war with Israel, as last occurred in 2006. The majority of Lebanese view Hezbollah’s political power in the small Mediterranean country with displeasure.

Israel shifts war focus

Israel’s Defense Minister announced a “new phase” of the war. “The focus is shifting to the north,” said Joav Galant. “We are providing forces, resources and energy for the northern area.”

During the night he also spoke with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin about the operations in the south and north, Galant’s office said. The focus is on defense against the Hezbollah threat in northern Israel.

The Israeli army also reportedly moved a unit that had been deployed in the Gaza Strip for months to the border with Lebanon. According to Israeli media, it is said to consist of around 10,000 to 20,000 soldiers. The unit was withdrawn from the city of Khan Yunis at the end of August.

In the Gaza Strip, the news of the shift in the Israelis’ war focus sparked skepticism. Israel’s army is still continuing its operations in the coastal area, residents reported to the German Press Agency. According to the Hamas-controlled health authority, many Palestinians are still being killed. People in the Gaza Strip say they hope that the military will not only reduce the fighting, but end it completely.

Israel’s government is under pressure at home

Israel’s security cabinet recently set another war goal in addition to freeing the hostages from the Gaza Strip and destroying Hamas: the return of Israeli refugees to the border region. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), around 110,000 people have fled the Lebanese border region since the almost daily fighting between Israel and Hezbollah began. On the Israeli side, the figure is around 60,000, according to government figures.

In Israel, pressure is growing on the leadership to allow residents to return to the north. Many Israelis find the ongoing shelling from their neighbouring country, which also repeatedly claims victims in Israel, to be intolerable. Parts of Israel are no longer habitable, and their country has practically shrunk in size, people in Tel Aviv say.

No agreement in sight in Gaza war

An agreement with Hamas to end the Gaza war was long considered the key to pacifying the conflict in northern Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon says it is acting in solidarity with Hamas and will only stop its attacks on Israel once a ceasefire has been reached in the Gaza Strip. Since a deal with Hamas has not been reached for months, Israel wants to use military and diplomatic pressure to get Hezbollah to withdraw behind the Litani River, 30 kilometers from the border – as stipulated in a UN resolution.

There are reportedly differences of opinion within the political and security leadership in Israel as to whether a larger military operation in Lebanon, perhaps including ground troops, would serve the goal.

There are also differing views in Israel about the alleged coordinated attack on the communications equipment used by Hezbollah, which is attributed to Israel. Some observers praise the explosions of the equipment as a warning message to Hezbollah, because it increases the pressure to reach an agreement with Israel independent of the Gaza war.

Others are critical. Israeli media quote high-ranking Israeli defense officials as saying that this will not help residents of the border region. Instead, there is a risk that the conflict will spread and affect many more people in the future.

Concern about further coordinated attacks

In Lebanon, there were fears of further attacks following the waves of explosions on Tuesday and Wednesday. Travelers are now no longer allowed to take pagers or radio devices known as walkie-talkies on board an aircraft. The devices will be confiscated at the airport, the Civil Aviation Authority announced.

People in Beirut and other parts of the country where the explosions occurred told the newspaper L’Orient Le Jour of horrific scenes. “I saw pools of blood everywhere, fingers and shreds of hands on the ground,” said one. Another reported “fingertips, torn clothes and organs on the ground.” A woman in the south told the newspaper that the attack was an “attack on the whole of Lebanon.”