France: Barnier on the verge of elimination? Vote of no confidence in Paris

Less than three months after the new French government took office, Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s cabinet is on the verge of collapse. The dispute over its planned austerity budget has escalated, and the members of the National Assembly are now voting on two motions of no confidence against the government this afternoon. What is important about this:

Is it already clear how the vote will turn out?

Not entirely, but it is expected that a majority of MPs will withdraw their confidence in the government and thus overthrow it. Both the left-wing camp of communists, greens, socialists and leftists, as well as Marine Le Pen’s right-wing nationalists, who initially tolerated the minority government, have submitted a motion of no confidence. Together, the opposition parties achieved the necessary absolute majority of 289 votes.

Will this also mean President Macron will be voted out?

No. The vote of no confidence only applies to the government. President Emmanuel Macron is not part of the cabinet. At the same time, a fall of the government would also put him under pressure. Because he had appointed Barnier and his center camp also governed. Le Pen and the left may be hoping that by overthrowing the government, Macron will be persuaded to call for an early presidential election. The vote is actually not due until 2027. Macron cannot run again after two terms in office.

So are there going to be elections again in France?

There will be no new parliamentary elections even if the government falls. As a reminder: Macron dissolved the National Assembly in the spring and called a new election. Repeat elections are only possible one year after the second round of elections, i.e. in July. Even the fall of the government would not change the complicated balance of power. Currently, neither the center forces nor the left camp nor the right-wing nationalists and their allies have their own majority in the parliamentary chamber.

Parts of the opposition are likely to hope for an early presidential election. However, Macron had repeatedly emphasized that he wanted to remain head of state until the end of his term in office – i.e. until the regular elections in 2027.

Will France soon find itself without a government? What does that mean for the country?

If the vote of no confidence is successful as expected, Barnier will have to submit his resignation and that of his government to Macron. However, Macron is likely to leave the ministers in office until there is a new government. You could then take care of important ongoing matters, but not initiate new initiatives.

But even with a caretaker cabinet, the fall of the government in France would cause another political crisis. Even in the summer, forming a government was extremely complicated and lengthy. Ultimately, with the Barnier government, only a tolerated cabinet without a majority of its own could be found. The situation is unlikely to get any easier if the balance of power remains the same. In addition, the budget for the coming year has not yet been approved. There is no threat of a shutdown in France like in the USA. However, with the necessary austerity plans planned, it will be difficult without a government.

Aren’t government overthrows quite common in France?

No. In recent years, French governments have generally held shorter positions than in Germany and have also changed during a parliamentary legislative period. Under Macron, who has been president since 2017, there have been at least six governments with five different prime ministers, depending on how you count.

Pressure from parliament sometimes played a role in these changes of government, but the MPs did not vote out the cabinet. In recent French history, MPs have only been successful with a vote of no confidence once: in 1962, they withdrew their confidence from Prime Minister Georges Pompidou and his government under head of state Charles de Gaulle. There was a new election.