For weeks, Vladimir Putin and his government have been insisting on a written NATO response to the Russian demands. Now he has it: But he is silent. A silence shattered by disturbing rumors.
Without a piece of paper, you’re a bug. This line from an old song is a household word to everyone in Russia. The meaning is simple: without a document you are nobody, only a piece of paper makes you a person. That’s how the Kremlin must have felt last Wednesday when the written response from NATO and the US to Russia’s demands for security guarantees finally arrived. For weeks, the Kremlin has insisted on a written reply from the western allies. Now he has her.
The documents that Washington handed over in coordination with NATO are in the hands of President Vladimir Putin, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov proudly announced. But: “We shouldn’t make hasty assessments, an analysis takes time.”
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was also reluctant on Thursday, but still satisfied that he could finally hold a document in his hands: “There is a reaction in it that allows us to count on the start of serious talks, but about secondary issues. There is no positive response to the main issue in this document,” he said.
What is meant is the Russian demand for a guarantee from NATO that it will not expand eastwards, in particular the guarantee that Ukraine will never be admitted to NATO. But experts agree: Moscow knew from the outset that this demand could not be met. “The content of this answer was clear to the Kremlin from the start,” agrees the Russian political scientist Andrei Kollesnikov. “Russia puffs itself up and mimics a great power that can decide the fate of the world. But of course that can’t be the case”, . It is also clear to Moscow that NATO cannot allow this.
The response from the West has at least provided a breather. “It’s good that the Kremlin didn’t immediately respond with military threats, but announced a period of reflection,” said the political scientist. It is obvious that it was openly communicated who is the only one who will make a decision here. “Lavrov said very clearly: We report to Putin, and Putin then decides.”
The great silence
But Putin is silent. The last time the Russian President spoke on this subject was on December 30. At the time, he demanded “guarantees” after his phone with Joe Biden. Since then there has been silence. Ironically, in a conflict that has kept the world in suspense for weeks and that he started, Putin seems to have taken a vow of silence.
Instead, he lets someone else speak. Dmitry Medvedev was among the first to speak publicly after the NATO paper was presented. In just a few sentences, the deputy head of the , dismissed all those political experts who had been rattling on state television in the past few weeks and ranting about the establishment of Russian bases in Cuba and Venezuela – in case the Kremlin didn’t like the NATO response .
Now they got a cold shower from Medvedev. “Cuba and Venezuela are our partners. These are countries that conduct independent foreign policies. These are sovereign states. We cannot under any circumstances station anything there, even if, as in the case of Cuba, we did in the past,” he explained. The establishment of bases must be in accordance with the national interests of both countries. But these look different from Russia’s interests. “Venezuela, for example, is trying to end international isolation and even normalize relations with the United States. So there can be no talk of bases,” Medvedev clarified.
Vladimir Putin’s mouthpiece has spoken
The dismissal is no accident. Just like the threats of the pro-Kremlin experts on Russian television before. It is Putin’s signal that he is willing to continue talking to the West. “Medvedev always acts as a mouthpiece in such cases. I have no doubt that Medvedev did not express his personal point of view,” political analyst Semen Nowoprudskiy told . “According to his current position, his status and the political situation in Russia, Medvedev has no position of his own.” Even now, Medvedev has expressed Putin’s point of view, or part of it.
The game of time
Meanwhile, Putin goes about his day-to-day business while the world is upside down. If you take a look at his official calendar, you can see how the head of the Kremlin is dedicating himself to the vaccination campaign and solving problems for students. On Thursday, he attended a memorial service marking the 78th anniversary of Nazi Germany’s end of the siege of St. Petersburg. In proud solitude, he laid flowers at the memorial cemetery.
And at the last Security Council meeting, he discussed additional measures to improve fire safety and reduce the risk of an emergency during a flood.
Putin’s long silence raises questions. Some observers believe he is waiting until he can communicate directly with Biden again — to show that Russia is negotiating a new world architecture on an equal footing with the United States, and not just European security.
But could it also be the calm before the storm? Should the Kremlin prepare for war against all expectations, it will eventually do so quietly. Now Lavrov and Peskov have told the world that Putin will take the time to consider NATO’s response. You buy him time. The question remains: what for?
Is Putin waiting for China’s love?
A rumor broke into this silence: Chinese ruler Xi Jinping is said to have asked Putin not to attack Ukraine during the Winter Olympics in Beijing, Bloomberg reported last week, citing a Chinese diplomat. The last thing Xi needs right now is for Putin to overshadow China’s big moment, analysts say.
The two nations have often had each other’s backs on the global stage. Together they have blocked United Nations Security Council resolutions and coordinated on issues such as North Korea. More importantly, they don’t condemn each other’s illegal actions: like Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
This also took place shortly after the Olympic Winter Games in Sochi. A disturbing parallel. On February 4, Putin plans to join his Chinese counterpart at the Olympics opening ceremony. The fate of Ukraine may be decided in Beijing.
Source From: Stern
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