Grönland: What the results of the parliamentary election tell us

It is a real “avalanche victory” for the opposition in Greenland to say it with an arctic pun. Two opposition parties were able to increase in the parliamentary elections: the social liberal democracy and the independence party Naleraq. With almost 30 percent of the votes as a clear election winner, the former gets through the finish line, Naleraq comes to almost 25 percent. The previous center-left government of Inuit Ataqatigiit and Siumut is therefore voted out.

A surprising election for the Greenlanders, Denmark, international observer-and also the election winner himself: “We did not expect the choice that would go out. We are very happy,” said 33-year-old democracy candidate Jens-Frederik Nielsen after the election on Greenland.

But what does the political change in Greenland mean? Is the largest island in the world striving faster towards independence? And what conclusions draws Donald Trump, who would like to incorporate Greenland in the USA?

Although the geopolitical tug of war between the USA, Greenland and Denmark overshadowed the election, it was less about Trump than the everyday life of the Greenlanders. Democratite wants to strengthen the Greenland economy and reduce taxes. Apparently, the Greenlanders strived for a change and an improvement in their own economic situation and that of the inuit nation. And that has set democracy in this choice.

The election campaign was characterized by independence. They strive for almost all parties, but their paths there differ. Would like to reach this as soon as possible while is more reserved. First of all, they want to clarify which finances and skills are necessary to gradually achieve independence. Specifically, this means that the economic and financial foundation must first be opened before the door to independence is opened.

Other parties, such as the election loser, also advocated investigations before the paragraph 21 of the Greenlandic Authority Act is activated, which regulates the way to the independence of Greenland from Denmark.

Since democratite and Naleraq are far apart in the independence question, a coalition with parties that switch back here seems more likely.

The election results in Greenland are likely to strengthen the Kingdom of Denmark-consisting of Denmark, the Faroe Islands and Greenland-as well as the relationships between Denmark and Greenland themselves. With her careful approach to independence, democracy (at least for the foreseeable future) of the former colonial power Denmark remains connected. Party leader Jens-Frederik Nielsen could move Copenhagen to concessions in order to further develop the Greenland infrastructure and economy, which could strengthen the bonds between Denmark and Greenland.

There is also Copenhagen the opportunity to deal with the Greenland question more intensively. The Greenlanders apparently strive for an orderly transition to independence, which gives Denmark more time and scope for a good solution for both sides.

The election result is also a cancellation of Trump’s plans to buy Greenland or even annex it militarily. So Denmark can carefully breathe a sigh of relief for the time being.

Overall, the election result for the Danish government is to be assessed positively, but it also carries risks. The previous government parties Inuit Ataqatigiit and Siumut would have been the wish partner of Copenhagen, since they have been working with them for a long time and thereby hoping for stability. On the one hand, it is unclear what demands the new government will make in NuuK. On the other hand, government formation in Greenland could take a long time, since stable majorities in the new party constellation should be difficult to find. Trump could push into this vacuum.

This election is not a victory for the US president: Greenland’s independence is moving far away, there will be no Pro-American coalition. His crude plans to make Greenland a US territory have neither driven the Greenland voters into his arms nor advanced the question of independence.

But Donald Trump likes to do his world as he likes. He could argue that Democratic victory shows that Greenland wants to make more “business”. This actually fits the plans of the party to strengthen the Greenland economy. Trump could therefore promote billions in investments, for example for the rescue of the coveted mineral resources in Greenland. He could also interpret the strong performance of the more US-oriented Naleraq as strong will to independence. Both would be a risk to the Danish government and the cohesion of the Kingdom of Denmark.

Should Trump actually draw these conclusions and continue his annexation policy, the pressure on Copenhagen remains. Denmark is then under pressure to quickly accommodate the Greenlanders. A second drop of bitterness for Denmark’s government.